238 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

Market reaction to nhi and foreigners dumping stock.....
Soot you will have the report on the health market inquiry which will speak to all the problems in the private sector which will certainly be followed by immediate raparations and penalties.
And the final red flag is the medical schemes ammendment act which is soon to be implemented which will prevent copayment resulting in further strain to members, hospitals and medical aids....

The recovery in discovery shares will see a second downturn....

Look for it


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[Investment novice]

Hospitals to announce major shakeup and retrenchment of bloated structures....
And multiple layers of support staff

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[Investment novice]

Eish.... Reading responses from various healthcare companies in an effort to stem the share slide makes me wonder if they really have any strategic investments to defend this... Unlikely.
Should see ongoing dump mainly hospitals where the biggest squeeze will occur and medical administration.
Even if the nhi is delayed or canned there will definately be alternative solutions to remedy the current issues... Price regulations etc.... Which means lower revenue and lower margins....
Hospitals are heavy machines with little room to manoevre and any new investments would be wither high cost and high debt... Or lower costs but lower revenue generating potential.
No opportunity for acquisitions in a highly concentrated market.
Retrenchments... Soon.... Hope limited

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[Investment novice]

Nhi bil... Another Eskom for Looting, creation of entitlement, inability to collect funds, inability to manage costs, and the top brass will be policitically elected inexperienced management who currently have not been able to deliver care in public....

This is poor policy, another failure implementation, and detracting from wht we need.... Businesses will thrive on low margin income, limited funds for maintenance and facilities will be run down. Medical aid according to nhi will not exist but this will not be constitutionally defended...so there will still be a limited private sector....

Price regulation,...... Long waiting lists.... Inefficiencies will be rampant.... Oh and our politicians say that a lectronic health record will be the answer to our problems... Which again speaks to their naivety. As all that means is that corruption is automated...

Health sector under massive pressure... And sell off not only due to foreigners dumping.... But competition enquiry.... And price regulation..... Poor growth...... Massive input expenses and medical legal claims... Why would anyone want to be in the health sector.....

Is there a tongaat or steinhoff entity in any of these shares...... Perhaps bigger scrutiny will be required.
Finally...expect massive management retrenchment.... And if we don't see this.... Means that the family run listed entities are hanging on as long as possible...

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[Investment novice]

Health shares in for pummeling, afrocentric should follow suit with significant income from medical administrator similar to discovery. Hospital groups going to have compromised margins. Majority of whom are stuck with out an impressive diversification strategy, diversification Al's under threat in other regulated markets. Debt levels need to be reigned in before margins.... Hence will see majority cash going into deleveraging. Maintenance budgets will be compromised.....
Pharma may get more revenue but at lower margins.... Expect the entire market to be impacted.
Discovery coming under major pressure, suspect if 100 mark broken this share will be at r60...
Hospitals expect this share low r12-r14 for netcare and life care, mediclinic may be and head towards r40...

Just some thumbsuck... But have been spot on with this portfolio... Missed the aspen debarble and ascendis

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[Investment novice]

Nice to see executives pay packets under scrutiny....paid to do jack all....heslthcare groups have got away with murder,....have been stuck....acquisitive growth as a dance for market show...low margins...now retreating with their tales....copy cat strategies....milking the south african investor and consumer.....safety net shares propped by PIC....

Poor H1 results....swine flue may have been a rescue....but doubt sufficient to show more than 6% growth....

Will see some nice uptick in these shares but expect overall trend to be flat....expect subdued dividents and very little growth in share price.....

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[Investment novice]

Lets ask a different question regarding hospital listed shares.....which of these companies can increase their dividend payout and sustain it.....
Or which of these companies are going to sustainable be paying less dividends....

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[Polly]

still falling.....

[Investment novice]

Seeing directors purchase hospital shares at a fraction of the volume they receive....makes me think one thing only......sad day when management and directors try to pump the share artificially
Cummon the market wont move on that....buy a sufficient large volume to indicate that you really back this share...
See 2pm sens today ..life.


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[Investment novice]

I am still hesitant...buy after health market enquiry feedback.....or just before h2 ....
Very cheap indeed

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[Polly]

IN im starting to agree with the BT writer...These shares have been smashed and maybe they actually becoming buying opportunities f again for a change in cycle..Never going to catch the lows so spreading your purchases from now allowing you to buy more if they drop further...Surely cycle bottom is in soon...Some times you have to be brave and dip your feet in when nobody wants them Re Impala , Gfi , Ams etc...

 

I got some NTC today at R17.00...which is one third of my holdings im planning on having in my portfolio...If they dip to R15.00  i will buy another third...and then wait and watch...IF they continue falling i will sit it out and wait for a rebound to R15.00 to add another third...

 

These are now definitely offering value at these prices with their dividends and cash flows as well...

[Investment novice]

Interesting and extremeley brave for a hospital group to in your face declare obscene payments to managers when the company is under performing and share price is at its worse in 5 years and on its way south
Another example of management profiteering and shareholders interest.
Happy that i dumped all here with my profit locked in...who would have thought there is a health crisis.
Brave...extremely brave
Or downright arrogant



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[Investment novice]

And down go the shares ..healthsector in for torrid times....

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[Investment novice]

Interesting article in business day healthcare shares slump....superficial and very poor journalism....stating the obvious....
What is the inpact on pension funds that have significant weighting on health shares???
The article concludes by saying fund managers will be keen to target these sgares especially to take advantage in an uptick of the economy and or lenient regulatory environment....
Both of the above would be black swan events....hospital shares are heading south and will continue to do so until they level off and the dividend decline tapers..
They will continue to be sustainable due to demand for care but unlikely to maintain current profitability levels...if anything expect that to halve and hold especially when sa follows international trends for tariff regulation

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[Investment novice]

Expect similar fate for life as well....who knows what the bottom is...


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[Polly]

In i wont buy Ntc at moment..Massive overhang of shares to be sold here...As of today they dropped off TO...so funds need to re balance there..

 

Maybe 15/16 would be an excellent buy long term!!

As of today dropped off TOP40...sorry

[Investment novice]

Thanks Polly, happy to wait on this share....if it reaches 15 who knows may even start breeching those levels

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[Investment novice]

Thanks Polly, happy to wait on this share....if it reaches 15 who knows may even start breeching those levels

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[Polly]

I am pro discovery ....think this is a cheap share with a strong oot hold in china...well diversified and certainly a comoany for my portfolio.

Hospitals...are these shares undervalued. Could these shares see as much a run as did telekom due to their massive property portfolios....or would these shares also be up for further scrutiny based on their property valuations and rental income or accounting of all related transactions....

Hospital shares looking attractive..especially Netcare....

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In i wont buy Ntc at moment..Massive overhang of shares to be sold here...As of today they dropped off TO...so funds need to re balance there..

 

Maybe 15/16 would be an excellent buy long term!!

[Investment novice]

I am pro discovery ....think this is a cheap share with a strong oot hold in china...well diversified and certainly a comoany for my portfolio.

Hospitals...are these shares undervalued. Could these shares see as much a run as did telekom due to their massive property portfolios....or would these shares also be up for further scrutiny based on their property valuations and rental income or accounting of all related transactions....

Hospital shares looking attractive..especially Netcare....

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