1165 replies to this topic

[leo]

Just for some perspective pls.

https://kreviewer.co...1-their-shorts/

25m shorts, 4.2b issued share capital, obv not all a free float. Avg daily trades a are between 2 to 3 m shares.

Doesn't appear that the share is in a massive short position?

Sent from my SM-G935F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[Lionelza1]

 

You welcome.
 
1. Your trading platform should provide free charting.  If not use investing.com. They also provide free accurate charting. I actually use investing.com instead of my platform. The chart shown for PPC is via investing.com. 
 
2. 200 day moving average.. haven't you heard of that??  Wow...Plenty of moving averages can be used for different time frames but the universal daily time frame moving average used is the 200 day moving average. Above stock is bullish...below stock is bearish.For PPC this moving average is keeping it in check.. IF you follow my chart to the left when ppc was trading higher before there mess up, the 200ema was always resistance..Every time it hit that it bounced. Now that same 200ema has turned into resistance. Google moving averages in trading and do some homework..will help you a lot in investing and trading decisions. 
 
3. your platform or investing .com will have an indicator shown as ema...You need to tick that  and it will do all the calculations for the 200ema for you by inserting  the moving average on your graph. Must have tool .
 
 
PS for a newbie can be difficult setting up charts on investing.com... If you have a problem shout out here...

 


found it...many thanks.....looks greek...going to start clicking buttons and see what happens

[Polly]

They commissioned new plants in DRC this yr, Ethiopia and zim, there was a takeover attempt by Afrisam as u mentioned was unsuccessful.

I bought in at 6.50 about 2mnths ago, it went up to 6.90 i think and then dropped to R5.70 or so with big resistance. recently it started the climb but feels like its swimming against the current which is making me feel uneasy about long term investment (is what i bought in for....long term)

 

The competition you talk about and their old manufacturing plants i feel is spot on....my take that due to our economy and high unemployement levels, is generally when gov pumps money into this sector but it is the unknown for now

 

Where do you get your tech charts from? 

 

 

Price below 200ema which is big overhead resistance..If you follow the 200ema , every time it tested it, was a bear hammer.

So for time being best trades are:

 

And then i am not undrstanding that.....what is 200ema and where do you get that from?

 

 

Thanks for the advice dude   

 

You welcome.

 

1. Your trading platform should provide free charting.  If not use investing.com. They also provide free accurate charting. I actually use investing.com instead of my platform. The chart shown for PPC is via investing.com. 

 

2. 200 day moving average.. haven't you heard of that??  Wow...Plenty of moving averages can be used for different time frames but the universal daily time frame moving average used is the 200 day moving average. Above stock is bullish...below stock is bearish.For PPC this moving average is keeping it in check.. IF you follow my chart to the left when ppc was trading higher before there mess up, the 200ema was always resistance..Every time it hit that it bounced. Now that same 200ema has turned into resistance. Google moving averages in trading and do some homework..will help you a lot in investing and trading decisions. 

 

3. your platform or investing .com will have an indicator shown as ema...You need to tick that  and it will do all the calculations for the 200ema for you by inserting  the moving average on your graph. Must have tool .

 

 

PS for a newbie can be difficult setting up charts on investing.com... If you have a problem shout out here...

[Lionelza1]

Just too add to make things more clearer :

 

You can go long or invest for long term on a break of 200ema to upside  IE say 7.00

 

You can short big if it breaks R5.00 to downside

 

Seeing you already bought in , i suggest you sell at a loss if it break below R5.00

 

 

Protection of capital is of utmost importance be it trading or investing. If it breaks below 5.00 and you long term , dont think no ill hold it will recover. Yes it may recover but not after giving you endless sleepless nights, pain , spewing lies in this forum and social media ( which is the tendency these days) to pump your shares , attacking the guy who gave you this advise , kicking you dog every time you go home , price going to previous low of 3.50 or maybe breaking below it to R1.00  etc...

 

yes if it does go below R5.00 and you sell and it then recovers , please  still dont attack the guy who gave you the advise. You asked and he offered, no one can predict 100% of the time what will happen in the future..

 

They commissioned new plants in DRC this yr, Ethiopia and zim, there was a takeover attempt by Afrisam as u mentioned was unsuccessful.

I bought in at 6.50 about 2mnths ago, it went up to 6.90 i think and then dropped to R5.70 or so with big resistance. recently it started the climb but feels like its swimming against the current which is making me feel uneasy about long term investment (is what i bought in for....long term)

 

The competition you talk about and their old manufacturing plants i feel is spot on....my take that due to our economy and high unemployement levels, is generally when gov pumps money into this sector but it is the unknown for now

 

Where do you get your tech charts from? 

 

 

Price below 200ema which is big overhead resistance..If you follow the 200ema , every time it tested it, was a bear hammer.

So for time being best trades are:

 

And then i am not undrstanding that.....what is 200ema and where do you get that from?

 

 

Thanks for the advice dude   

[Polly]

tech chart of PPC on daily..

 

ppc1.PNG

 

 

 

same chart zoomed in :

 

ppc2.PNG

 

 

1. resistance on daily at +-R6.60

2. support on daily at +-R 5.35

3. 200day moving average at R6.68

 

Price below 200ema which is big overhead resistance..If you follow the 200ema , every time it tested it, was a bear hammer.

So for time being best trades are:

 

short near +-6.60

 

long near +-r5.35

 

 

any trade in between you gambling.

 

OK above is tech short term trades..

 

 

long term:

 

A little history:

 

I bought my first cfd trade as an amateur entering the trade world at long R43.00 ...and saw my backside. Dropped to R36.00 a week later..  No charts at that time like what our platform offers, no social media .etc...So was juts pure impulse gamble trade.  Taken as school fees paid..

 

PPC used to be part of Barlow group who then reorganized their entire portfolio and then gave their shareholders shares in PPC in  specie to existing shareholders. 

 

Used to trade around R50.00 , was a solid dividend payer ( +-10%) , had the highest return on capital emplyed by any company on the JSE===over 50% ROC , manufacturing one product ( cement) and kind of had a monopoly in the market. This im talking about 20 years ago. 

 

However over the years , with the advent of new players, cheaper cement from China, change in management , share price was destroyed. IMO the main reason for share destruction was that instead of retaining earnings for future growth  the company paid of most earnings as dividends. They continued to to produce cement with old infrastructure and  that caught up with them when new players entered the market. Suddenly they could not  compete anymore and had to go the markets for a rights issue to obtain finance to improve the quality of their manufacturing plants.. Value destruction.

Think price was hammered to a low of R3.50 if i remember correctly where it offered significant value to other players in same industry.We then had a few takeover offers, price moved up to about R8.00 but board did not accept the offer. Price subsequently back down to +- R6.00  levels

 

Will i buy long term at this price? Once again depends on your take on the construction industry. Its a cycle.2010 (Soccer  World Cup) was the cycle high...Now we at low or still going to low??  Has to be your take.

 

But at R6.00 i think it offers value going forward as the board did not accept R8.00 so obviously they think its worth higher then that.

 

See the penny stock thread..

1. good liquidity

2. clever money sold till hit 3.50...and clever money started buying from then upwards..

3. good takeover target

 

For long term i will buy and hold but using tech anyalysis close to R5.50/R6.00

Just too add to make things more clearer :

 

You can go long or invest for long term on a break of 200ema to upside  IE say 7.00

 

You can short big if it breaks R5.00 to downside

 

Seeing you already bought in , i suggest you sell at a loss if it break below R5.00

 

 

Protection of capital is of utmost importance be it trading or investing. If it breaks below 5.00 and you long term , dont think no ill hold it will recover. Yes it may recover but not after giving you endless sleepless nights, pain , spewing lies in this forum and social media ( which is the tendency these days) to pump your shares , attacking the guy who gave you this advise , kicking you dog every time you go home , price going to previous low of 3.50 or maybe breaking below it to R1.00  etc...

 

yes if it does go below R5.00 and you sell and it then recovers , please  still dont attack the guy who gave you the advise. You asked and he offered, no one can predict 100% of the time what will happen in the future..

[Polly]

And then Polly whats your take on PPC? i was anticipating gov spending money in this sector as its much needed, bought into it

 

Would appreciate your educated input on this.

 

tech chart of PPC on daily..

 

 ppc1.PNG   207.79KB   3 downloads

 

 

 

same chart zoomed in :

 

 ppc2.PNG   50.15KB   1 downloads

 

 

1. resistance on daily at +-R6.60

2. support on daily at +-R 5.35

3. 200day moving average at R6.68

 

Price below 200ema which is big overhead resistance..If you follow the 200ema , every time it tested it, was a bear hammer.

So for time being best trades are:

 

short near +-6.60

 

long near +-r5.35

 

 

any trade in between you gambling.

 

OK above is tech short term trades..

 

 

long term:

 

A little history:

 

I bought my first cfd trade as an amateur entering the trade world at long R43.00 ...and saw my backside. Dropped to R36.00 a week later..  No charts at that time like what our platform offers, no social media .etc...So was juts pure impulse gamble trade.  Taken as school fees paid..

 

PPC used to be part of Barlow group who then reorganized their entire portfolio and then gave their shareholders shares in PPC in  specie to existing shareholders. 

 

Used to trade around R50.00 , was a solid dividend payer ( +-10%) , had the highest return on capital emplyed by any company on the JSE===over 50% ROC , manufacturing one product ( cement) and kind of had a monopoly in the market. This im talking about 20 years ago. 

 

However over the years , with the advent of new players, cheaper cement from China, change in management , share price was destroyed. IMO the main reason for share destruction was that instead of retaining earnings for future growth  the company paid of most earnings as dividends. They continued to to produce cement with old infrastructure and  that caught up with them when new players entered the market. Suddenly they could not  compete anymore and had to go the markets for a rights issue to obtain finance to improve the quality of their manufacturing plants.. Value destruction.

Think price was hammered to a low of R3.50 if i remember correctly where it offered significant value to other players in same industry.We then had a few takeover offers, price moved up to about R8.00 but board did not accept the offer. Price subsequently back down to +- R6.00  levels

 

Will i buy long term at this price? Once again depends on your take on the construction industry. Its a cycle.2010 (Soccer  World Cup) was the cycle high...Now we at low or still going to low??  Has to be your take.

 

But at R6.00 i think it offers value going forward as the board did not accept R8.00 so obviously they think its worth higher then that.

 

See the penny stock thread..

1. good liquidity

2. clever money sold till hit 3.50...and clever money started buying from then upwards..

3. good takeover target

 

For long term i will buy and hold but using tech anyalysis close to R5.50/R6.00

Edited by Polly, 10 November 2018 - 09:53 AM.

[Polly]

My industry (consulting engineers) is still. Lost of retrenchment in industry. A timelag from consulting to construction so don't expect short-term gains. Also look at municipal plan approval numbers currently down. So I do not see quick local recover in sector. CR optimism might help, and election promises might see great project announcements.... reality tender processes takes months. I do believe that RSA has to get construction going again with local companies or we all fail. If I recall PPC has interests outside RSA- just check.

very good points./..have a friend working for  a top engineering / environmental firm in Durbs...Absolutely hardly any work out there. 60% of staff already retrenched. Kwa Zulu Natal roads dept have informed them to stop all work from their dept just like that. 

 

This construction and related industry going to be in the doldrums for more years then we all expecting. Question to ask now...

 

 

Has all this been priced into the construction shares?

Can it get any worse?

Has Govt got enough funds to continue with their infrastructure build?

Surely interest rates going up and we going deeper into recession not going to help the building industry..

 

 

So too many questions to make an informed decision if this industry is going to turn in the near future

Edited by Polly, 10 November 2018 - 08:03 AM.

[ESS]

And then Polly whats your take on PPC? i was anticipating gov spending money in this sector as its much needed, bought into it

Would appreciate your educated input on this.

My industry (consulting engineers) is still. Lost of retrenchment in industry. A timelag from consulting to construction so don't expect short-term gains. Also look at municipal plan approval numbers currently down. So I do not see quick local recover in sector. CR optimism might help, and election promises might see great project announcements.... reality tender processes takes months. I do believe that RSA has to get construction going again with local companies or we all fail. If I recall PPC has interests outside RSA- just check.

[Polly]

And then Polly whats your take on PPC? i was anticipating gov spending money in this sector as its much needed, bought into it

 

Would appreciate your educated input on this.

 

did u buy to invest or trade...ie do u need a tech analysis or fundamental analysis?

[Lionelza1]

And then Polly whats your take on PPC? i was anticipating gov spending money in this sector as its much needed, bought into it

 

Would appreciate your educated input on this.

Edited by Lionelza1, 09 November 2018 - 07:18 PM.

[Lionelza1]

first sign of disaster is transportation....when that slows down, u know the economy is in trouble...

 

Thats why most savy traders follow transportation index in US for clues..and boy is the Us pumping...thats why US index near ath

i was at pepkor logistics in isando last week.....place was "dead" considering this time of the yr....firgures not going to look good when released

 

US could be pumping w.r.t logistics.... means squat for our economy or jse listed companies that requires such services....gonna be doom and gloom

[Polly]

Hi Polly

I have pulled out majority of my positions on the JSE and now trade with Interactive brokers with exposure to International markets... hence my question to you earlier whether you trade international shares. Will you in the future consider trading outside of the JSE?

Hi  DM

 

not dont forsee trading overseas markets or fx for that matter...Trade what i know best...

 

If you trading indexes like alsi , dow f ,ftse futures etc, you need to learn and understand how the instruments work, its constituency, what factors effect it , foreign exchange effects, how other markets effect it , etc etc... I kinda worked it out perfectly on how alsi works, took me about 2 years understanding it and still learn now things about it... SO for me to move into another market will be too time consuming learning the in and outs of it...

 

Ive seen traders trade whole lot of multiple instruments using the same system and completely bomb out.. What system works on alsi would not necessarily work on ftse or dax for example. In trading to be successful do what you know best, rinse and repeat..

 

For me , trading more than one instrument just complicates my whole trading process.

 

Ps u may be meaning  shares as well....i only trade SA shares. Tech analysis is a bitsh  and time consuming so i just stick to a few shares where i know the fundamentals and how to play them. Like when to short retailers and bank shares , or go long mining shares etc... Trading overseas shares you relying on others for advise on fundamentals like what you read in papers or social media...so not your own  analysis

Edited by Polly, 09 November 2018 - 02:42 PM.

[Dusty Mountain]

first sign of disaster is transportation....when that slows down, u know the economy is in trouble...

 

Thats why most savy traders follow transportation index in US for clues..and boy is the Us pumping...thats why US index near ath

Hi Polly

I have pulled out majority of my positions on the JSE and now trade with Interactive brokers with exposure to International markets... hence my question to you earlier whether you trade international shares. Will you in the future consider trading outside of the JSE?

[Polly]

Good summary there Polly.... I think we gonna go back to the barter system.... I have a logistics business and never seen such low demand to move goods and when goods not moving, says much about the economy.....Babba Zooomaa and his cronies messed this country up big time... SA economy just like snh shares..... Useless

Sure hope Ramaphosa can fix this economy... But it's going to take years!

first sign of disaster is transportation....when that slows down, u know the economy is in trouble...

 

Thats why most savy traders follow transportation index in US for clues..and boy is the Us pumping...thats why US index near ath

[Lionelza1]

Good summary there Polly.... I think we gonna go back to the barter system.... I have a logistics business and never seen such low demand to move goods and when goods not moving, says much about the economy.....Babba Zooomaa and his cronies messed this country up big time... SA economy just like snh shares..... Useless

Sure hope Ramaphosa can fix this economy... But it's going to take years!

[Polly]

Polly just a question regarding rights issues and investment firms taking up these rights.

 

If we look at for example Aveng, DAWN and now Ascendis. All these companies had a rights issues one or two years ago. Back then the share price for all of these companies was about 70-90% higher and these big investment firms took up all the rights. Now these shares trade at such low prices and no one is buying more shares, however back then they where willing to pump millions into these companies. 

 

Is this just bad investment decisions and they making millions of losses or are they making money in some way? I don't get it and maybe you could help me understand this.

 

 

also remember when funds dispose, very hard for the company's  to raise new capital...Snowball effect....bank, bond holders become jittery, so do suppliers , emplyees especially top management start to leave..SO even company is fundamentally sound , sell off by funds creates a major disaster and suddenly company left in " No mans land" and have to throw in the towel...

Edited by Polly, 09 November 2018 - 01:47 PM.

[Polly]

Polly just a question regarding rights issues and investment firms taking up these rights.

 

If we look at for example Aveng, DAWN and now Ascendis. All these companies had a rights issues one or two years ago. Back then the share price for all of these companies was about 70-90% higher and these big investment firms took up all the rights. Now these shares trade at such low prices and no one is buying more shares, however back then they where willing to pump millions into these companies. 

 

Is this just bad investment decisions and they making millions of losses or are they making money in some way? I don't get it and maybe you could help me understand this.

Its purely sign of the times..Market are always forward pricing...IE look into the future..

 

Couple years ago thinks looked a little brighter in South Africa..Low interest rates, economy  was not booming but at least expected positive GDP growth..

 

How things changed so quickly.. With all this looting , gravy trains, back hand payments, Escom problems , one of the highest rate of unemployment in the world , a huge negative balance of payments, etc ect....economy looking very bleak going forward.  Markets start pricing whats going to happen in next 3 to 5 years. AND not looking good..

 

Markets actually pricing liquidation for most  of these companies. And remember market gets it right most of the time( 90% at least). So funds rather get something now and sell then getting nothing at all..They will never back a losing horse. Thats why with these penny stocks you need to do some serious homework before you part with your money. You actually taking on the clever money thinking you are more cleverer. 

 

One thing i know...Our economy is doomed... seems no light at the end of this tunnel.Even the rich are tightening up there belts as the high cost of electricity, water , rates bite into their income.. Whats gona happen to average Joe and the balance of the masses....

 

ANC needs to do some serious thinking now to fix this....so far none yet

Edited by Polly, 09 November 2018 - 11:18 AM.

[andi222]

Polly just a question regarding rights issues and investment firms taking up these rights.

 

If we look at for example Aveng, DAWN and now Ascendis. All these companies had a rights issues one or two years ago. Back then the share price for all of these companies was about 70-90% higher and these big investment firms took up all the rights. Now these shares trade at such low prices and no one is buying more shares, however back then they where willing to pump millions into these companies. 

 

Is this just bad investment decisions and they making millions of losses or are they making money in some way? I don't get it and maybe you could help me understand this.

[Polly]

well we at least got that right..

 

1 dow was up +400p on that election day

 

2. and yesterday was pain followed by probably more pain  today 

and the pain continues

[LarryK]

Thanks Polly 🙏🏻
Some great info.