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Ascendis Health Ltd. – JSE:ASC


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#701 Shi

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Posted 16 April 2020 - 10:26 AM

Sale equates to 5mil euros (R101m) confirming that asset sales are starting to happen. Two smaller EU assets are worth R1Bn. This is very positive in my opinion.

 

Definitely positive as they are using the funds to settle debt. 


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#702 Spell Jammer

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Posted 16 April 2020 - 10:25 AM

https://www.sharenet...e.php?scode=ASC
https://www.sharenet...eq=29&scode=ASC
Morning, could somebody translate in English plse?

Sale equates to 5mil euros (R101m) confirming that asset sales are starting to happen. Two smaller EU assets are worth R1Bn. This is very positive in my opinion.


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#703 Lionelza1

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Posted 16 April 2020 - 10:22 AM

Volumes r pumping but price going in negative direction..... Eish
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#704 Lionelza1

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Posted 16 April 2020 - 10:18 AM

https://www.sharenet...e.php?scode=ASC
https://www.sharenet...eq=29&scode=ASC
Morning, could somebody translate in English plse?

Edited by Lionelza1, 16 April 2020 - 10:20 AM.

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#705 soutie

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Posted 16 April 2020 - 09:27 AM

New study out from China.. You going to love it.. Shows benefit and pllication of drug... The question is not whether this drug will be used.. It's what is the combination drugs and ascendis has all...chloroquine, antiviral and the zinc and vitamins.....

Its as if this drug was manafuactured specifically for ascendis... Majority of their business lines pumping.... The price will move... It's going, you can be cautious... Wait for it... Mr market decides...but as soon as the company plans to delist or sell... The price goes straight there.. And you miss the bus.....some busses you can get on.... Some you can't..... This is one bus that once it flips..will see r6; R12, R20,, come very quickly.... Wait for it... Cautionary will come soon... You have nothing to lose here... Share already rock bottom man never got to 40c...the new bottom will be where it is........ With the Rand devaluation this share is worth a few million.. The debt in dollars is cheap....

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A little further explanation when you get the chance on the above Mucho Appreciated....

Cheers.


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Anyone need a heads up...!


#706 Investment novice

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 10:20 PM

New study out from China.. You going to love it.. Shows benefit and pllication of drug... The question is not whether this drug will be used.. It's what is the combination drugs and ascendis has all...chloroquine, antiviral and the zinc and vitamins.....

Its as if this drug was manafuactured specifically for ascendis... Majority of their business lines pumping.... The price will move... It's going, you can be cautious... Wait for it... Mr market decides...but as soon as the company plans to delist or sell... The price goes straight there.. And you miss the bus.....some busses you can get on.... Some you can't..... This is one bus that once it flips..will see r6; R12, R20,, come very quickly.... Wait for it... Cautionary will come soon... You have nothing to lose here... Share already rock bottom man never got to 40c...the new bottom will be where it is........ With the Rand devaluation this share is worth a few million.. The debt in dollars is cheap....

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#707 Lionelza1

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 07:55 PM

https://www.sharenet...eq=37&scode=ASC

LOL 7000 shares purchased by a Director? Wonder if they cut his salary or something
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#708 Lionelza1

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 07:52 PM

https://www.sharenet...eq=37&scode=ASC

LOL 7000 shares purchased by a Director? Wonder if they cut his salary or something
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#709 Lionelza1

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 07:49 PM

think Andi just wants the market to come down so he can get more. Listen. I have never been so convinced of a company and product portfolio. I reduced my snh holding by 80 percent and placed all here.. It would have been 100% but kept 20% sentimental...
No matter what you think.. This is a life savior and I will jump on this ship even at R8, as the acquisition price may be r10.... Or even the delisting price. I bought at 1.60....did not care it drops to 20c even because my exit in two months is R10... In 4 weeks we going to be in our ears corona. And the Rand is going further south and this babe is a hedge as well as a money spinner..

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South Dakota is talking about results on this drug in 6mths time. Long time that.

For me I was anticipating this drop, way too much profits not to take. Ok recovery in afternoon....still no fact about this drug, that's IF this is the reason why market reacted the way they did.

Tommorrows another day :D... I'm still in
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#710 Investment novice

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 05:34 PM

60c? Eish... Hope not

think Andi just wants the market to come down so he can get more. Listen. I have never been so convinced of a company and product portfolio. I reduced my snh holding by 80 percent and placed all here.. It would have been 100% but kept 20% sentimental...
No matter what you think.. This is a life savior and I will jump on this ship even at R8, as the acquisition price may be r10.... Or even the delisting price. I bought at 1.60....did not care it drops to 20c even because my exit in two months is R10... In 4 weeks we going to be in our ears corona. And the Rand is going further south and this babe is a hedge as well as a money spinner..

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#711 Lionelza1

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 05:08 PM

I think the market overreacted badly on this one. It shot up by basically 200% in a week. I think market will realize that the additional revenue will not offset the decline in the other revenue segments.

As long as the debt portion is not solved I cannot see huge increases in near future.

Don'T get me wrong, I still think this share has great potential. But for now I'm only re-entering at around 60 cents.


60c? Eish... Hope not
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#712 Lionelza1

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 05:07 PM

So here goes waiting on the evidence and literature... But there are many many many articles already posted which suggested that there is definately a role for chloroquine. The question is around dosages and when do you utilize it. There is anecdotal information coming from South Africa cases where drs started this early and are less willing to ventilate providing a more conservative approach and better outcomes. Ventilator use and late treatment with chloroquine is not advised.

The use of chloroquin is supported thus far in various countries, still being studied which will take 6 or more months. Everyone using it for the following :

1. Early diagnosis and fear of converting to symptomatic. Not supported but demand is rife.
2. For treatment where hospitalization not required. This seems to be where big big big volume is driving demand
3. Hospital admissions and here it is included in all countries regimes
4. Late stage. Not certain.
5. Health workers using it on a different regime not treatment.. For prevention. Having the drug in the system helps prevent the infection apparently. This is also across the board many countries.
6. When exposed. Similar to hiv.. If you came into contact you immediately use the chloroquine or hydroversion. Driving demand

The experts thus advise me personally.. Not you... Just sharing what I have been told. There is insufficient hard evidence but the experts say that is just to cover drs with errors. They say the fact that all drs and nurses have started using this speaks volumes. They also say the disease process is poorly understood and that chloroquine may or may not target the virus but interestingly it opens the door to zinc which is part of treatment and probably will be combined with new chloroquine preparations. Hence even if its not used as primary drug there is certainly a room for using this drug.

Now the investment case. I am going to invest a large chunk of my free cash to pump this share. I am comfortable with my research. This company is highly geared but I believe the asset value is now significantly more than we all think which explains the 400% growth. The share should be trading at 20x multiple and this company is going to be a hot acquisition target which i see could bet at r20 a share.

Here are my reasons

1. Unprecedented demand for chloroquin proven or unproven everyone wants the drug and very limited companies can produce. Asc can easily leverage this
2. Apart from this experts advise as reported by media, asc holds a basket of other drugs that are second line and hence thelis too ahs not been accounted for.
3. Asc has a range of vital products. I visited dischem to see the range. And the shelves were bare. Found a few. Including zinc, vit E, vit a and a number. These otc have cleared the shelf and dischem advises stocks in soon. The markup on otcs historically are horrendously crazy 40 or 50 or even 300%. This has not been factored. I mentioned asc have not been truthful. I think they actually downplayed the significance.
4. The ecmo products and ventilator products have flown off the shelf as hospitals stockpile. Many sa to be produced are for expansion and won't compete in this market. However the experts who I have spoke to said they cannot understand the profit on ecmo, usually low utilized and expansive high margins, but with covid icu patients this is critical with getting oxygen in the blood especially now when clinical experts requesting less ventilation or lower pressures. This should in itself be a gold mine product
5. Lastly... Asc mentioned a reduction of surgery, but this is not significant as the delay and backlog are no causing surgical pressures.. So this is delayed sales and revenue rather than lost revenue


I was absolutely gobsmacked with the conversation. Sounds plausible. Fortunately I have lost and gained on this share. But as today will commit to buy 400000 shares or less or more depending on the price I can score it at.
I will use every subsequent day to try get more.

Hoping that this share should be easily r3`. Sort maybe r6, perhaps if I follow experts they reckon a aggressive acquition at r20 and taking the debt. And this may be only for remedica.
Based on the prices the company may also elect to reward shareholders and lock in r20 and delist....

Please don't accuse me of pumping. Or dumping. Or falsifying. I committed to conversing and feeding back. You may engage your financial experts.. I engaged clinical experts. I am not a financial or clinical expert in all these matters. It is my research to motivate the way forward. Praying that all of us can make some money. To comfort some losses.




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Very informative. Thanks for sharing
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#713 Investment novice

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 05:03 PM

New study out. Have not figured how to attach..... Chloroquine use in patients with blood test showing inflammatiom
Standard test, simple routine prevents disease progression.... Get on the bus... We off to r6

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#714 Spell Jammer

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 04:13 PM

I think the market overreacted badly on this one. It shot up by basically 200% in a week. I think market will realize that the additional revenue will not offset the decline in the other revenue segments.

 

As long as the debt portion is not solved I cannot see huge increases in near future. 

 

Don'T get me wrong, I still think this share has great potential. But for now I'm only re-entering at around 60 cents. 

Steadily climbing back up. Pretty much everything is down on the JSE today.


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#715 Investment novice

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 03:39 PM

Hi Andi. That was the point. I think if this goes to 60c....i am selling my house to load here... After the research... I think that this is an extremely hot share. They will delist themselves to extract value. Or a definate acquisition... This entity is cheap......

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#716 andi222

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 02:57 PM

I think the market overreacted badly on this one. It shot up by basically 200% in a week. I think market will realize that the additional revenue will not offset the decline in the other revenue segments.

 

As long as the debt portion is not solved I cannot see huge increases in near future. 

 

Don'T get me wrong, I still think this share has great potential. But for now I'm only re-entering at around 60 cents. 


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#717 Investment novice

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 01:43 PM

Looks like pump and now dump......if you bought. Ride this one...

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#718 Investment novice

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 11:34 AM

Be good to see what projections Andi can put together.

Trading flat low volumes... Nice hesitancy..... Will see a nice afternoon pump....

This is a share you buy and look away... Set your price alert at r6

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#719 Pilotpilot

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 10:57 AM

So here goes waiting on the evidence and literature... But there are many many many articles already posted which suggested that there is definately a role for chloroquine. The question is around dosages and when do you utilize it. There is anecdotal information coming from South Africa cases where drs started this early and are less willing to ventilate providing a more conservative approach and better outcomes. Ventilator use and late treatment with chloroquine is not advised.

The use of chloroquin is supported thus far in various countries, still being studied which will take 6 or more months. Everyone using it for the following :

1. Early diagnosis and fear of converting to symptomatic. Not supported but demand is rife.
2. For treatment where hospitalization not required. This seems to be where big big big volume is driving demand
3. Hospital admissions and here it is included in all countries regimes
4. Late stage. Not certain.
5. Health workers using it on a different regime not treatment.. For prevention. Having the drug in the system helps prevent the infection apparently. This is also across the board many countries.
6. When exposed. Similar to hiv.. If you came into contact you immediately use the chloroquine or hydroversion. Driving demand

The experts thus advise me personally.. Not you... Just sharing what I have been told. There is insufficient hard evidence but the experts say that is just to cover drs with errors. They say the fact that all drs and nurses have started using this speaks volumes. They also say the disease process is poorly understood and that chloroquine may or may not target the virus but interestingly it opens the door to zinc which is part of treatment and probably will be combined with new chloroquine preparations. Hence even if its not used as primary drug there is certainly a room for using this drug.

Now the investment case. I am going to invest a large chunk of my free cash to pump this share. I am comfortable with my research. This company is highly geared but I believe the asset value is now significantly more than we all think which explains the 400% growth. The share should be trading at 20x multiple and this company is going to be a hot acquisition target which i see could bet at r20 a share.

Here are my reasons

1. Unprecedented demand for chloroquin proven or unproven everyone wants the drug and very limited companies can produce. Asc can easily leverage this
2. Apart from this experts advise as reported by media, asc holds a basket of other drugs that are second line and hence thelis too ahs not been accounted for.
3. Asc has a range of vital products. I visited dischem to see the range. And the shelves were bare. Found a few. Including zinc, vit E, vit a and a number. These otc have cleared the shelf and dischem advises stocks in soon. The markup on otcs historically are horrendously crazy 40 or 50 or even 300%. This has not been factored. I mentioned asc have not been truthful. I think they actually downplayed the significance.
4. The ecmo products and ventilator products have flown off the shelf as hospitals stockpile. Many sa to be produced are for expansion and won't compete in this market. However the experts who I have spoke to said they cannot understand the profit on ecmo, usually low utilized and expansive high margins, but with covid icu patients this is critical with getting oxygen in the blood especially now when clinical experts requesting less ventilation or lower pressures. This should in itself be a gold mine product
5. Lastly... Asc mentioned a reduction of surgery, but this is not significant as the delay and backlog are no causing surgical pressures.. So this is delayed sales and revenue rather than lost revenue


I was absolutely gobsmacked with the conversation. Sounds plausible. Fortunately I have lost and gained on this share. But as today will commit to buy 400000 shares or less or more depending on the price I can score it at.
I will use every subsequent day to try get more.

Hoping that this share should be easily r3`. Sort maybe r6, perhaps if I follow experts they reckon a aggressive acquition at r20 and taking the debt. And this may be only for remedica.
Based on the prices the company may also elect to reward shareholders and lock in r20 and delist....

Please don't accuse me of pumping. Or dumping. Or falsifying. I committed to conversing and feeding back. You may engage your financial experts.. I engaged clinical experts. I am not a financial or clinical expert in all these matters. It is my research to motivate the way forward. Praying that all of us can make some money. To comfort some losses.




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 Thanks IN for your input and effort....much appreciated. This company has everything going for it and it will surely reach those levels. 

 

I don't know if it has been mentioned before, but Remedica's earnings was not included in the last financial statements, as it was in the process of being sold. They showed a 30% increase in earnings and that section of the business should have increased in value by at least 30%. Add another 30% for weakening of the rand.....and another huge increase in their NAV and earnings.

 

Glad you got your holdings at a good level.... ;)


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#720 Investment novice

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 10:01 AM

Got my shares. Done

Wanted to add. The team is pike to new very little about asc rapid test for covid. But explained this could be a game changer allowing factories, hospitals, mines, and layperson.... Any potential to purchase the test and no with probability whether they are positive or not. The application is wide for screening all patients entering any facility or companies in occ health. Asc mentioned there is some exciting stuff... I think this is it. Experts could not accurately comment.

Let's see what asc says... May or may not succeed.. But couple this with items below.. Just does not make sense for the current share price... I would hazard a guess from all of you what this could be... The proof will be in the pudding but enough here to warrant a steady or frantically crazi joyride.

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