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Ascendis Health Ltd. – JSE:ASC


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#701 DeltaHedge

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Posted 16 February 2021 - 10:06 AM

Some very interesting comments and constructive chat on twitter.
The best for me is the comment around what is the actual debt and value that l1 blantyre holding...is it 200m usd- and secondly what is the value of asc european assets....35m euro h1 ebitda say 70m euro full year- on a 6x multipe or 10x multiple company valued at 420m euro to 700m euros.
If we go with 420 m euro...l1 blantyre would be happy to get 50% of all european assets as a debt to equity swap or even 50% asc. That leaves us share holders with 50% asc or the 100% asc and 50% of european assets.

Either scenario sees us in a really great position....your thoughts?????

 

IN, in a D/E swap, lets say in this example they set a price of R3 a share, would then we as shareholders have to opt in to sell our shares at 3 bucks ? (in this case i wouldnt mind). 
What happens if shareholders refuse but by special resolution it goes through, does the company have to issue equity at 3 bucks for the swap to take place?


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#702 Investment novice

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Posted 16 February 2021 - 04:50 AM

Some very interesting comments and constructive chat on twitter.
The best for me is the comment around what is the actual debt and value that l1 blantyre holding...is it 200m usd- and secondly what is the value of asc european assets....35m euro h1 ebitda say 70m euro full year- on a 6x multipe or 10x multiple company valued at 420m euro to 700m euros.
If we go with 420 m euro...l1 blantyre would be happy to get 50% of all european assets as a debt to equity swap or even 50% asc. That leaves us share holders with 50% asc or the 100% asc and 50% of european assets.

Either scenario sees us in a really great position....your thoughts?????
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#703 Investment novice

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Posted 15 February 2021 - 06:31 PM

Kak share price today...if you feeling down..look at steinhof chat....we were once at 80c and just under for a long time...now you w8sh you sold your house to buy at 80c..many of us loaded with conviction whilst the troops of posters on the chat haggled and mocked at us.

Do you own analysis...be happy with what you think is value...and ignore the low...if you in it...use the low to buy...this is a timing strategy....need to be in before the upswing or have enough cash to get in on day 1 ....


There are only so many opportunities for a gravy train...steinhof may have left the station for 500% but asc is still in the station....once the announcement is made you can still make a 100%...i want the 1000% with this share....and that is still 40% discount off the r10 i think we sitting on...and thats xoming fast
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#704 Investment novice

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Posted 15 February 2021 - 06:00 PM

This is the reply i got today



As previously stated, management is currently working with its advisors to determine the most effective manner in which to recapitalise the business and to ensure an optimal solution for the company and its stakeholders. We recognise the need to keep our shareholders informed throughout this process and are committed to doing this as decisions are made by the board. Once the Ascendis Health board has evaluated the options and implications of a recapitalisation, we will advise shareholders via SENS.



This sounds as work in progress....and that xonstructive discussions are underway ...this is exciting...
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#705 Investment novice

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Posted 15 February 2021 - 05:54 PM

I think they are panicked instead of being rational.alternatively we saw same with steinhof...people create a noise to drive price down but then load up.
I certainly dont teust some of the comments. There is always a doom scenario.
But opposite scenaria which means more money for everyone is a sustainavle porfitable company...in which ever form...we in 2021 shareholders have rights...
Whatever is decided will require justification evem if management are corrupt and doing a deal for self enrihcment after the effect who knows...but what will be required would be a justifiable scenaria and assumptions based on avaluation model. Anything epse and we in court..and then its lose lose...

Whats great for shareholders...

1. All massive impairments already accounted for in 2020
2. 2021 financials are already looking spectacular
3. Rand stregnthening and debt reduction on books as at h1
4. Heps at end 2021 will be spectacular

Hence apart from debt the companies assets and valuations exceed debt...and being cash flow positive ....


If ever there was a valuation done in asc favour..it is now....qe have all the upside to factor in....all the businesses....


And the share price is not fairvalue as is..


One thing i agree with the chaps below and activists..fairvalue.....and this is the reason the pe firm at targetting ascendis


Cheap- lots of upside....loads of potential....dividends better than interest payment....
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#706 DeltaHedge

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Posted 15 February 2021 - 04:05 PM

https://twitter.com/AscendisI

I wonder what they see as fair value for ASC?


I also think their statement of there will be no equity left for shareholders is not valid because they don’t know or have any idea about the deal that will be struck.

I don’t think they are as well informed as this group like with some of the analysis given here.

Also management would definitely not give anything away to them. So they just in panic mode in my opinion.
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#707 Shi

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Posted 15 February 2021 - 03:59 PM

could you possibly add a link DeltaHedge ?

 

https://twitter.com/AscendisI

 

I wonder what they see as fair value for ASC?


Edited by Shi, 15 February 2021 - 04:00 PM.

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“One day Alice came to a fork in the road and saw a Cheshire cat in a tree. Which road do I take? she asked. Where do you want to go? was his response. I don't know, Alice answered. Then, said the cat, it doesn't matter.” - Lewis Carroll

#708 AnbanM

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Posted 15 February 2021 - 03:52 PM

The ascendis activist investors on Twitter made a comment that they had been in touch with management. Check it out.


could you possibly add a link DeltaHedge ?
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#709 DeltaHedge

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Posted 15 February 2021 - 03:44 PM

The ascendis activist investors on Twitter made a comment that they had been in touch with management. Check it out.
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#710 AMG76

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Posted 15 February 2021 - 10:26 AM

Let's hope for some positive news soon......
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#711 Investment novice

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Posted 15 February 2021 - 10:19 AM

Volume has dried up. .....reality we need positive news to move the needle...until then.....painful traumatic movie to watch the red blood
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#712 Investment novice

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 02:52 PM

Get to know your acquirer..L1 health Letterone

Consistent with its mission to invest in transformative platforms backed by long-term industry trends, in October 2019 L1 Health acquired Destination Pet and launched a new animal health and wellness platform in the U.S. and Europe. Destination Pet is a leader in pet health care services and a trusted high-quality pet care and vet services provider. In 2019 L1 also invested in K2 HealthVentures (K2HV), which is a start-up venture, providing life sciences companies at the venture and growth stages with innovative financing solutions.

For more information on our portfolio companies, click here.....go their website..

Letterone and blantyre are after the gold mine...and shareholders get to derisk delevrage our asset with a great potential long term play and growth of the company potentially rolled into another...these entrepreneurs are stacking theor health assets ....backed by good money not debt fueled acquisitions....as c2c undertook.

Lots of hope
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#713 Investment novice

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 10:39 AM

Apart from numbers look at scenario modelling..as we did with snh..
Take a scenario you own 30% or 50% and debt is reduced 75%. And next years ebitda is r2b. Or even r1.5b .
And the share trades at a pe 3 which is modest...or 5...and add in dividend yield and potential div 10c - 20c or 30c at 2022 or 2023.

Once you have your assumptioms you can get your buy price...


Alterntively you lose everything and get 30c to a r1 unlikely..maybe 30% of valuation...

I like my odds...my money my hedge...every person needs to consider thwir risk appetite
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#714 DeltaHedge

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 10:15 AM

Ignore if holidng..look if you considerring buy or sell. I could net get any at 69c. But picked up this morning...
When others panic or selling......

 

lets look past the noise, if the numbers/balance sheet justify a price of R2+ then its a hold. You know your numbers on Ascendis much better than I but last analysis done by you and Andi showed that intrinsic value is definitely R2+, lets hold!


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#715 Investment novice

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 10:10 AM

Ignore if holidng..look if you considerring buy or sell. I could net get any at 69c. But picked up this morning...
When others panic or selling......
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#716 DeltaHedge

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 09:57 AM

Again this morning, won't be surprised if we see 65c as it is struggling to hold onto 70c.

 

yea looks rotten today, not good vibes in the stock, they need to speak to the market


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#717 Shi

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 09:52 AM

is it me or does she look a bit sick today

 

Again this morning, won't be surprised if we see 65c as it is struggling to hold onto 70c.


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“One day Alice came to a fork in the road and saw a Cheshire cat in a tree. Which road do I take? she asked. Where do you want to go? was his response. I don't know, Alice answered. Then, said the cat, it doesn't matter.” - Lewis Carroll

#718 Investment novice

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 06:27 AM

Prof eli shwarz sheba hospital first first wild developed country to present study on ivermectin...israel and remedica have strong ties...ivermectin works apparently..hope to see lots more of this.. guess we are sitting on a wonder drug which will form the basis of prevention medicine and treatment ....great this came out now and not later...this one drug potentially worth loads...
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#719 Investment novice

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 03:23 AM

I am going to hold in my stock portfolio until the end but then I also have a ton in my IG markets and worried how they treat a delisting, it seems they take the value to 0 or something.



The next questiin we should ask....if this is a long play and not a delisting...can this company pay 30c a share dividend per year by 2022. If asc owned 50% by h1blantyre- and we still have debt at r2billion- recfinanced. Can this company swing into positive eps and pay div...

This could be a growth share and high div yield share for blantyre capital especially at the price they buying in at.
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#720 DeltaHedge

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Posted 11 February 2021 - 09:08 PM

I hope you dont sell at r1.50...it may be idea for the acquirer to get you to sell at r1.50.
I suggest you look at your numbers and split shares out and sell specific volumes at specific target points. Hence you dont feel miserable if you miss the big upside..but if there are ups and downs ..tou get some ups locked in
My personal strategy was sell all at r4. But i am now thinking...30% at r3- 30% at r4 and keep 40% for longer...not sure what longer means....right through to 5 years if still listed...


I am going to hold in my stock portfolio until the end but then I also have a ton in my IG markets and worried how they treat a delisting, it seems they take the value to 0 or something.
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