1645 replies to this topic

[Shi]

Lots of volume and lots of big volume purchases ....dumping or taking a position...double volume for a friday...wonder if someone has inside track...news soon????

 

More dumping since the increased volume hasn't moved the share price, but just halted the slide. ASC closed at 69c last Friday, and at 72c the week before.

 

Trend is your friend. 

 

Wouldn't be surprised if Blantyre/Letter1 wanted this as we don't have any idea of what their recapitalization plans are.

[DeltaHedge]

Lots of volume and lots of big volume purchases ....dumping or taking a position...double volume for a friday...wonder if someone has inside track...news soon????

 

this is me, i am a whale

[Investment novice]

Lots of volume and lots of big volume purchases ....dumping or taking a position...double volume for a friday...wonder if someone has inside track...news soon????

[DeltaHedge]

Expect down.trend ..unless news comes in or demand comes in.....we almost a month in so expect some update 4 to 8 weeks....

Nervous sellers or pic and other reducing ...


End month hope to pick up more shares if lower...

Ya I am going to buy more in my stock account, maybe at 50 cents. Good risk reward there.

[Investment novice]

It looks to be getting absolutely mauled today as per usual.

Expect down.trend ..unless news comes in or demand comes in.....we almost a month in so expect some update 4 to 8 weeks....

Nervous sellers or pic and other reducing ...


End month hope to pick up more shares if lower...

[sommerso]

Pls can we have an open discussion around share price and market manipulation- both up and down

1. Is there such a thing
2. Does the current share price reflect true value
3. When c2c had 4 or 5 margin calls the sjare price moved in a particular direction. Before the margin call...the day before was the company any less valuable
4. Do entities with vested interest have the ability to optimise theor purchase compared to us general public.
5. What is the impact of computer trading...
6. Is there a notion that sometimes investors sweat our weaker holders...


Think we all need to have some sense of what happens daily and the gaps in the jse system to protect shares - or prevent or limit external forces


Be interested in your thoughts-

 

 

Investment Novice, I think that'll be a good conversation to post in General or Random 

[DeltaHedge]

This share needs to start doing something gents:(
Been on the bottom end for a while now and results more than pleasing to the eye
Come on ASC.....time to wake up this sleeping giant

It looks to be getting absolutely mauled today as per usual.

[vishalsur]

This share needs to start doing something gents:(

Been on the bottom end for a while now and results more than pleasing to the eye

 

Come on ASC.....time to wake up this sleeping giant

[Investment novice]

Pls can we have an open discussion around share price and market manipulation- both up and down

1. Is there such a thing
2. Does the current share price reflect true value
3. When c2c had 4 or 5 margin calls the sjare price moved in a particular direction. Before the margin call...the day before was the company any less valuable
4. Do entities with vested interest have the ability to optimise theor purchase compared to us general public.
5. What is the impact of computer trading...
6. Is there a notion that sometimes investors sweat our weaker holders...


Think we all need to have some sense of what happens daily and the gaps in the jse system to protect shares - or prevent or limit external forces


Be interested in your thoughts-

[Investment novice]

Thanks for all the insight, wish I had something of value to add. What is staggering and utterly disturbing is the apparent mass manipulation of these shares by the big players...

Expect it then it does not emotionally destroy you.....but either hold cash and try time the market and buy at its lowest....or just figure your upside and then just buy...

[Investment novice]

WTF...Dude..!!!!
Early morning delusional rant......
You said exactly the same when it was trading just under R2
You're gonna loose you your credibility with outbursts like that.
Anyhow continue to shout into the void if it keeps you happy or the people paying you to pump this speculative play pay by the post...???
Down to c63 as it type...But hey wait there're gonna offer R3 per share in exchange for debt/equity swap...
So yeah buy now & look away.

Listen did i lie about snh

Sorry about early morning...need to remember time zones

[Leadingedge]

Thanks for all the insight, wish I had something of value to add. What is staggering and utterly disturbing is the apparent mass manipulation of these shares by the big players...

[soutie]

Buy and look away ...this is a hot play. Come back in 6 weeks. Or set a r1.50 flag on your watch list. Dont over cook this- dont over think this....i just hope the pump does not start before month end.. would love a bite at more shares.. .todays price on this share or any in the range even at 90c or r1 is a joke and something you wished you bought ....dont listen to fear mongers....i have done quite anumber of acquisitions.. this one is following the playbook

 

WTF...Dude..!!!!

Early morning delusional rant......  

You said exactly the same when it was trading just under R2

You're gonna loose you your credibility with outbursts like that.

Anyhow continue to shout into the void if it keeps you happy or the people paying you to pump this speculative play pay by the post...???

Down to c63 as it type...But hey wait there're gonna offer R3 per share in exchange for debt/equity swap...

So yeah buy now & look away.

[Investment novice]

Buy and look away ...this is a hot play. Come back in 6 weeks. Or set a r1.50 flag on your watch list. Dont over cook this- dont over think this....i just hope the pump does not start before month end.. would love a bite at more shares.. .todays price on this share or any in the range even at 90c or r1 is a joke and something you wished you bought ....dont listen to fear mongers....i have done quite anumber of acquisitions.. this one is following the playbook

[Investment novice]

So debt equity swap...first need to identify which asset or equity h1 interested in. If they after asc then yes....sahres currently lets round to 500m and if they want 50% equity...then another 500m shares issues to h1 blantyre. At the value negotiated which could 50% shares for r3billion.

If h1b want equity in remedica or european assets...then the global business is ring fenced into one entity and 50% of that entity is handed to h1b for the r3billion debt or whatever is negotiated.

What is our share price after. Depending on negotiated account...lets say it is a middle ground weighted to h1 b.

Asc share price then factors in the deal and what was givem off to reduce debt by 50 to 75%.

As the share price is suppressed due to liquadity and debt risk...the deal automatically removes that amd asc has an uplift.

The size of uplift depends on the deal. Effe tively its as if we selling 50 % or some of the assets....what remains really is a going concern- reduced debt- rand hedge- profitable entity which will then get a fair trading price to earnings multiple and we again at an easy r3. Following dividends we seeing r6 or r9


Why do i always land at r3...this os my worse case legal scenario. Shareholders are protected from blantyre stealimg everything as we have ebitda for wuropean assets and a easy valuation of that at 420m euros...h1blanture debt is only 200musd or maybe a little more...no court would allow hostile takeover with these numbers.


So why r3 as a minimal...see previous posts...this is a long play..4 to 8 weeks to get to r2 - then r4 by fy and first dividend we at r10.


Why should you risk the buy now....at 65c you probably can get a 20c to 30c dividend in 2022...why ...h1b are going to sweat amd milk this entity...they going to push for dividends amd drive their share valuations for their investors...there is no way thwy going to be passive....as shareholders we enjoy the ride.

[DeltaHedge]

I agree - although Delta may be referring to once volumes begin drying up? In the meantime, as long as sellers are willing to part with their shares at bargain bin prices, I think any chance of a good offer is unlikely.

I was just trying to probe the mechanics of a D/E swap in the case of Ascendis.

Does the company have to issue equity if shareholders don’t want to do a swap @ 3 bucks for example.

Basically can a D/E swap lead to dilution of existing shareholders.

Or would it be a deal with larger shareholders a deal already agreed by both parties @ 3 bucks a share, so a book order will go through ?

Does this then mean the share price would automatically jump to 3 bucks a share ?

[Investment novice]

Hi DeltaHedge.
There's quite at lot of chatter about a possible de-listing with figures of "X" per share & now yours of R3 debt swap.
Why would the debt holders pay multiples of what it's currently trading at...??
Why not buy in the open market there's nothing stopping them from that. Plus there's seemingly no end of sellers even at this "ridiculous" price.
Thanks in advance.

R1.5billion ebitda x 6 to 10x multiple less debt. Crude valuation...places asc at r9b to r15b less the r6b debt.

An acquirer off the street will have to pay fair value anywhere r9 to r15b for the entity with part settlement of debt with the purchase price . Or on sale the seller settles debt.

Blantyre realises this is the case and they will leverage close to r9 to r10 billion if they want the entire asc. Leaving current shareholders with r2b all things equal...so plus minus r4 a share for a delisting modest...

They dont need to comiit that much caputal to get 50% of cash flow and dividends...hence the 180million usd will buy and then probably look to delist.


If they mopping upshares...demand will exceed supply...and depending on the amount of time they have to do this will drive the price accordingly. Example pre agm share price increase 30%. Pic and other shares mopped up....suspect any demand in excess of 2 to 5% will drive the share to 90c and demand close to 10% will breach r1.60 and if demand is for 25 % we at r2 etc....

The best way to acquire at discount is by leverage. And they did this...but does not entitle them to the holden egg and the goose...for that we have transaction advises that will suppirt an adequate swap.negotiated..

I reference matress firm...as that was one of the quickest we saw where snh shareholders lost 50% equity in MF but gained value....and did not look back....


Run a few scenarios....bleak is really anywhere30c to a rand which on valuation is r3 ...

Current share price not indicative of value but sentiment.

[Bushmanbob]

Hi DeltaHedge.

There's quite at lot of chatter about a possible de-listing with figures of "X" per share & now yours of R3 debt swap.

Why would the debt holders pay multiples of what it's currently trading at...??

Why not buy in the open market there's nothing stopping them from that. Plus there's seemingly no end of sellers even at this "ridiculous" price.

Thanks in advance.

I agree - although Delta may be referring to once volumes begin drying up?  In the meantime, as long as sellers are willing to part with their shares at bargain bin prices, I think any chance of a good offer is unlikely.

[soutie]

IN, in a D/E swap, lets say in this example they set a price of R3 a share, would then we as shareholders have to opt in to sell our shares at 3 bucks ? (in this case i wouldnt mind). 
What happens if shareholders refuse but by special resolution it goes through, does the company have to issue equity at 3 bucks for the swap to take place?

Hi DeltaHedge.

There's quite at lot of chatter about a possible de-listing with figures of "X" per share & now yours of R3 debt swap.

Why would the debt holders pay multiples of what it's currently trading at...??

Why not buy in the open market there's nothing stopping them from that. Plus there's seemingly no end of sellers even at this "ridiculous" price.

Thanks in advance.

[Investment novice]

Hi....if we delisting the shareholders will be offered a price. But the governance and approvals before this will be critical.

Debt equity swap and look at matress firm 2 yrs back as a good example. Asc board sells off 50% of an entity.....potentially european assets and for that the debt is zero owed to l1.for the quantum of debt they own. Hence it is important to start with what is the value of SA business- european business and group business. Then what does h1 blantyre want to buy. They bought the 200m usd debt for provably 10% discount. Lets for exampke say 180m usd....they will swap that for 50% euro businesses which is housed in a seperate company.they effectively buying 50% of a business for 180musd which 100% is at 6x multiple worth 420m euros...1 euro to 1.2 usd....they should be paying 220euros for 50% of european business but effe tively get this at 180m usd. Already an upside of 60m usd. They also buying 50% annual dividends..which may be 30m euros so 36m usd for 180m usd...hence dividend yield and their balance sheet growth at a discount...

This is there upside versus only being paid 200usd plus 1yr interest

I think the market are panicking and overcooking this.....even if thwy agree to 50% of asc..we as shareholders are still left with a big chunk....

Recap does not include a rights issue at 60c a share....thats all scare tactics tp get timid investors to bail whilst the qolves are buyi g...hence my fear that potential corruption woth pic and other dumping but a friend buying....


Asc is remarbly valuable right now. And can even sell their 200m debt for equity to a SA friendly fund.....we not strung by the ba.ls....