1645 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

Pump this...snh we have a few months.

Management is slack...hopeless...there was pkenti sens options to guide on process- strategy- presentation of own valuation etc...

Snh management at least did this well- albeit sometimes chose the wrong wording...

[LarryK]

So the question is whether to pump this share at 50c or snh at 100c??? Or both??? 😁😁😁

[DeltaHedge]

I like the option of swapping 50% equity for debt ....its like selling 50%. We keep the growth - rand hedge...international businesses...and in time potwntially either delist or change primary listing to unlock the value ..

Management needs to share the process and guidance and then the approach....remember there is a deal maker involved....exciting times....

I would much rather a strong going concern with annual dividends then having to cash out and pay capital gains....

 

Slow Bleed eish. Management really needs to catch a wakeup

[Investment novice]

If all else fails then why wouldnt they just stick to the original plan and sell Remedica and payoff their debt then continue as a going concern

I like the option of swapping 50% equity for debt ....its like selling 50%. We keep the growth - rand hedge...international businesses...and in time potwntially either delist or change primary listing to unlock the value ..

Management needs to share the process and guidance and then the approach....remember there is a deal maker involved....exciting times....

I would much rather a strong going concern with annual dividends then having to cash out and pay capital gains....

[DeltaHedge]

All speculation at the moment.....

 

If all else fails then why wouldnt they just stick to the original plan and sell Remedica and payoff their debt then continue as a going concern

[Investment novice]

All speculation at the moment.....

[Shi]

Business Rescue? Hopefully not, as we wouldn't want this to be a drawn out process.

 

https://twitter.com/...271773638090753

[Investment novice]

Agreed...

I've been thinking about the scenario again...

This would give us 1.5×8 = 12 Billion less 7 Billion debt.
5 Billion market cap would be reasonable for me or an NAV of 10 Rands per share.
(above borrowed from Andi's post a while ago)

If you look at some research done, EBITDA multiple for pharma can even go up to 17.7x, another website indicated 14.5, therefore
I am in agreement with Andi that the 8x is VERY conservative...

So where were we before Blantyre/L1...they probably would have sold Remedica, and wiped the debt.

This probably leaves R 700 - R 800 million EBITDA. x 8 = R 5,6 billion without the debt burden, and interestingly
still roughly the same market cap, and NAV...

I guess what I'm getting at is that they (Blantyre/L1) can't argue that they "saved" us shareholders - we had a way out...
So the shares are worth MINIMUM R10 imo...

so why the big discount - someone please help me cause something's missing here...?

Can Ascendis be such a well kept secret? don't know anymore...

I posed your question to a hedge fund manager. He says Sasol share price at r38 is a good example on market dynamics. Does not follow academic principles

He did a valuation of asc and said 10x multiple is reasonable. And probably what h1 letterone blantyre using in their modelling and npv analysis showing a double digit rirr.
When negotiating they will use a 5x multiple as a discount. And they aim to get at least 50% of asc for the 75% debt they hold.
If they do this they have literally doubled their value. Effect on share price depends on what management finally agrees to. But he thinks is favourable as there is a globally recognised deal maker that is supporting management. Market will only respond once deal structure announced. Expects share price to be under pressure until then. His target price to buy is 50c for this month. If there is movement he will take a chunk in march. He wont buy anything now hoping to get a buy of at least 1m shares at 50c.

[Investment novice]

In 2017 asc was trading at 35x multiple .
15x multiple is reasonable and i would accept 10x multiple...we would get this after 2 years of dividends.....so 2022 - 2023 ....do your valuations...plant your seeds and harvest your crops.....1 x share at 60c...or maybe goes to 50c.....imagine first div gives you back 30c....and a rand hedge.......i am a serious pumper ...share the live share the pain

[Investment novice]

Agreed...

I've been thinking about the scenario again...

This would give us 1.5×8 = 12 Billion less 7 Billion debt.
5 Billion market cap would be reasonable for me or an NAV of 10 Rands per share.
(above borrowed from Andi's post a while ago)

If you look at some research done, EBITDA multiple for pharma can even go up to 17.7x, another website indicated 14.5, therefore
I am in agreement with Andi that the 8x is VERY conservative...

So where were we before Blantyre/L1...they probably would have sold Remedica, and wiped the debt.

This probably leaves R 700 - R 800 million EBITDA. x 8 = R 5,6 billion without the debt burden, and interestingly
still roughly the same market cap, and NAV...

I guess what I'm getting at is that they (Blantyre/L1) can't argue that they "saved" us shareholders - we had a way out...
So the shares are worth MINIMUM R10 imo...

so why the big discount - someone please help me cause something's missing here...?

Can Ascendis be such a well kept secret? don't know anymore...

Discount is because of the debt....its illogical but investment houses cant buy here due to the rules based systems. Price manipulation or weaker shareholders selling out.....bite your tongue...and throw money into the abyss with this share....once there is information the market responds....lots of exampls...mittal 39- ppc eoh snh- even sasol was at r39.....debt....and for all....it was a matter of time....

[Dell]

Agreed...

 

I've been thinking about the scenario again...

 

This would give us 1.5×8 = 12 Billion less 7 Billion debt.
5 Billion market cap would be reasonable for me or an NAV of 10 Rands per share.

(above borrowed from Andi's post a while ago)

 

If you look at some research done, EBITDA multiple for pharma can even go up to 17.7x, another website indicated 14.5, therefore

I am in agreement with Andi that the 8x is VERY conservative...

 

So where were we before Blantyre/L1...they probably would have sold Remedica, and wiped the debt.

 

This probably leaves R 700 - R 800 million EBITDA. x 8 = R 5,6 billion without the debt burden, and interestingly

still roughly the same market cap, and NAV...

 

I guess what I'm getting at is that they (Blantyre/L1) can't argue that they "saved" us shareholders - we had a way out...

So the shares are worth MINIMUM R10 imo...

 

so why the big discount - someone please help me cause something's missing here...?

 

Can Ascendis be such a well kept secret?  don't know anymore...

 

[Investment novice]

This share has officially become more frustrating than steinhoff

Poison downtrend until management communicates

[DeltaHedge]

Pls support the activist group on twitter. I have many times requested management to issue a sens with an updated calendar and guidance on the process . They have refused. We need to force better communication

Be great to get a sales pitch presentation that they would use for valuation and negotiation with h1 balntyre.


This is very logical and reasonable to request from management.

This share has officially become more frustrating than steinhoff

Edited by DeltaHedge, 25 February 2021 - 02:16 PM.

[Investment novice]

Pls support the activist group on twitter. I have many times requested management to issue a sens with an updated calendar and guidance on the process . They have refused. We need to force better communication

Be great to get a sales pitch presentation that they would use for valuation and negotiation with h1 balntyre.


This is very logical and reasonable to request from management.

[Investment novice]

And we wait.........and wait.....
Nothing has changed. Seems volume has temproraily dried up

I want to bash management and accuse them of looking after themselves post deal.....but that would be wrong...they are responsible and have done a good job to keep the company affloat...


Hope they can do a better job woth posituve communicatiin ...take a leaf out of van koller...eoh dudr even repeats the same crap over and over...

Gives the market comfort to be part of journey and process..


It would have been fair to at least shared the calendar of meetings and process to reach an agreement.....

Do we have legal recourse to demand this

[Investment novice]

Now is the deadly silence....almost a month in and there have been engagements...even if a decision has not been made...a sens should be due on progress...we waiting for any communication to drive the price

[Leadingedge]

Morning All...

things looking very quite on Ascendis today ? any thoughts for the upcoming week ?

 

Interesting that there is a slow upward trend today, where many other stocks are struggling. I have also notice that the excessively big offers (1 million + shares) that were present almost every day recently, have vanished. Maybe they have completed a step an update is due soon?

[AnbanM]

Morning All...

things looking very quite on Ascendis today ? any thoughts for the upcoming week ?

[Investment novice]

More dumping since the increased volume hasn't moved the share price, but just halted the slide. ASC closed at 69c last Friday, and at 72c the week before.

Trend is your friend.

Wouldn't be surprised if Blantyre/Letter1 wanted this as we don't have any idea of what their recapitalization plans are.

Recapitalisation independent of share price. Its a debt for asset swap....or part thereof.....

[Investment novice]

5million shares and only 152 trades....