1645 replies to this topic

[Zanme]

Zanme I'm looking forward to the day you say anything positive or at least contribute constructively to any one of the forum chats.

He is sacrificing our most valuable asset to pay consultants and sleepy you want me to sing hallelujah. We could have made 80 times our money in 6 years if he did this right.

[Zanme]

Zanme I'm looking forward to the day you say anything positive or at least contribute constructively to any one of the forum chats.

No need to insult. I can't see anything positive contribution from anyone here really. I just see things like Mark is such a nice guy like we dating him or something. He is doing a job and there is nothing spectacular that he is has done. So what am I supposed to pull out the pom poms for him like the rest of the happy clappers. Ascendis is down and out compared to where it was so catch a wake up. There is a reason for it and Mark is that reason. The day that I see a management team adding value to my back pocket I will praise them. But please stop with this undue praise for someone that has put the wool over your gulable eyes.

[Investment novice]

On the Biz News Radio podcast last week, there was Mark Sardi. Piet Viljoen made a comment that "the assets that Ascendis was left with would do great with other suitors"(not verbatim). What surprised me was that Mark Sardi didn't push back, but let it slide, to me it was like he was agreeing with Piet, and and that they are indeed trying to sell more businesses. I may be wrong, but that's what I picked up in that conversation.

My take is the strategic pillar 3 is to monetise meaning either dividends or sale to PE firm and delisting at r4.., ..at r4 Mark hits his r12 m bonus.....looki g forward to sens on animal health and see if we score a r500m profit. Book value at r750m..so a sale at r1.3b ....lots t9 digest..share can drop to whatever level...but its where it ends for our exit or long term benefit...window 6 months

[Sleepwa123]

Zanme I'm looking forward to the day you say anything positive or at least contribute constructively to any one of the forum chats.

[Zanme]

I don't think that technical analysis can be useful in these situations.
In my opinion, e have to be more focused on next recapitalization milestones.

By the end of May we shoud receive news related to the company assets value. Then, within 60 days the shareholders vote.

Anyway, there are in front of us some weeks good to trade the shares, so don't be so much worried/excited about the share price moves.

For 'Long' shareholders, please remind that if shareholders will approve the deal, Ascendis will be a company with about 20-25 million € as EBITDA.
And current market capitalization is 20 million €....

Shareholders including most people on this forumn are hailing this guy like his Elon Musk. But he has literally done absolutely nothing. You guys are our own worst enemy.

[Zanme]

I don't think that technical analysis can be useful in these situations.
In my opinion, e have to be more focused on next recapitalization milestones.

By the end of May we shoud receive news related to the company assets value. Then, within 60 days the shareholders vote.

Anyway, there are in front of us some weeks good to trade the shares, so don't be so much worried/excited about the share price moves.

For 'Long' shareholders, please remind that if shareholders will approve the deal, Ascendis will be a company with about 20-25 million € as EBITDA.
And current market capitalization is 20 million €....

If Mark was worth anything he could have negotiated better debt structure. With its current EBITDA Ascendis could pay down its debt to zero in 6 years time. Then we talking something. An entity at current Ebitda of 1.6 billion could have had a value of R16 billion. But he is secured it for his buddies.

[Tolly12]

Technically on the daily charts, we are at our last support line 67c. Looking at Pivots points from 30m to 1D. The Weekly has us at support much from 40c. 

 

Looking at 4h - MACD and RSI, this is a recovery from a very overbought region that peaked the 12th of May. I wouldn't be surprised if we dropped all the way to 60c again and started trading from that base again. The 30m RSI is already in oversold territory. The 1h RSI is touching on the oversold territory, which can hopefully recover and that can translate to recovery on the 4h. We had a similar pattern November the 19th 2020 where it also touched 85c and declined to about the 70c mark for about 2 months. before declining to 48c.  

 

On the upside we have the shareholder approval vote in July. Would not be surprised if we stayed range bound at around 60c until then. Without news and additional developments there is nothing to do but wait until approval and see what the future holds. Interested to hear other opinions. 

 

All disclaimers involved regarding trading and due diligence. Mostly taking a stab at this 

 

 

Can someone please share how they upload graphs? 

 

I don't think that technical analysis can be useful in these situations.

In my opinion, e have to be more focused on next recapitalization milestones.

 

By the end of May we shoud receive news related to the company assets value. Then, within 60 days the shareholders vote.

 

Anyway, there are in front of us some weeks good to trade the shares, so don't be so much worried/excited about the share price moves.

 

For 'Long' shareholders, please remind that if shareholders will approve the deal, Ascendis will be a company with about 20-25 million € as EBITDA.

And current market capitalization is 20 million €....

[sommerso]

Technically on the daily charts, we are at our last support line 67c. Looking at Pivots points from 30m to 1D. The Weekly has us at support much from 40c. 

 

Looking at 4h - MACD and RSI, this is a recovery from a very overbought region that peaked the 12th of May. I wouldn't be surprised if we dropped all the way to 60c again and started trading from that base again. The 30m RSI is already in oversold territory. The 1h RSI is touching on the oversold territory, which can hopefully recover and that can translate to recovery on the 4h. We had a similar pattern November the 19th 2020 where it also touched 85c and declined to about the 70c mark for about 2 months. before declining to 48c.  

 

On the upside we have the shareholder approval vote in July. Would not be surprised if we stayed range bound at around 60c until then. Without news and additional developments there is nothing to do but wait until approval and see what the future holds. Interested to hear other opinions. 

 

All disclaimers involved regarding trading and due diligence. Mostly taking a stab at this 

 

 

Can someone please share how they upload graphs? 

 

 

 

[Zanme]

Mark is serving his own agenda here. His giving away a sound business at PE below 10 a business that is growing aggressively. He has failed to bring down head office costs. When I engaged with him once he said that the R200 million plus head office costs are as a result of audit fees and JSE listing fees. I mean really??? He is so willing to pay consultants to structure these arrangements instead of nocking on the doors of a couple of banks to help him restructure the debt. He has taken over two years to bring this comprimise for shareholders. And Alec Hogg who we all know gets paid to be a Spind Doctor is praising him. Alec Hogg makes no money from subscribers. These media networks are being used by companies management to promote their own agendas. Its all a big farce.

[sommerso]

Anyone else get the feeling that this stock is being manipulated down? One tires of saying (and seeing) it. But looking at the trades today, there are many low volume trades, less than 1000 shares. 

 

Which probably bodes well as it means someone is accumulating ( hopefully )  

[Blackobar]

On the Biz News Radio podcast last week, there was Mark Sardi. Piet Viljoen made a comment that "the assets that Ascendis was left with would do great with other suitors"(not verbatim). What surprised me was that Mark Sardi didn't push back, but let it slide, to me it was like he was agreeing with Piet, and and that they are indeed trying to sell more businesses. I may be wrong, but that's what I picked up in that conversation.

[sommerso]

I wouldn't mind any form of divident, just to jolt the share price in an upwards movement. Maybe I'm being impatient or just jittery. Waiting for shareholder approval, but not seeing that it will make much different to the share price at this moment. The market is usually ahead of the curve ( buying rumours and selling news ) ... so it might have already started factoring in the Shareholder approval and still we more than 10% down. 

Would Mr Market have thought it possible to keep Remedica? 

 

 

Also .... looking at my other holdings, which have gone the similar route of ASC and faced large debts and are now profitable, the share price hasn't shot up in leaps and bounds. There is still trust that needs to be won over from the market and that may take months, many months and might even include a very positive annual report or two. Think I'm posting this for my own expectations. 

[sommerso]

All cash will go towards fees and finance vehicles for interest. Surely they can soare r50m for dividends to support the recovery in share value amd isntill confidence
Buildi g up for sale r90m
And h1 results....ceo and cfo spoke about getting money to shareholders....

 

I wouldn't mind any form of divident, just to jolt the share price in an upwards movement. Maybe I'm being impatient or just jittery. Waiting for shareholder approval, but not seeing that it will make much different to the share price at this moment. The market is usually ahead of the curve ( buying rumours and selling news ) ... so it might have already started factoring in the Shareholder approval and still we more than 10% down. 

Would Mr Market have thought it possible to keep Remedica? 

[Investment novice]

All cash will go towards fees and finance vehicles for interest. Surely they can soare r50m for dividends to support the recovery in share value amd isntill confidence
Buildi g up for sale r90m
And h1 results....ceo and cfo spoke about getting money to shareholders....

[Sleepwa123]

I doubt they will pay out a special dividend. Restructuring the group is going to be expensive and they will be cautious with excess cash as least in the short to medium term.

My sense is that if anything is declared that it will be at the usual year-end timeframe.

 

But I like where your head is at 

[Investment novice]

Animal health carrying value about r750m. We should be targetying a sale of r1.5b
The additional r750 less tax comes to asc.
We going to push for special dividend

[Investment novice]

In your opinion, do you think a sitting Duck target is a good position to be in - or bad? I mean, a duck in the hand is worth 2 dead birds, thrown with one stone? Or something like that? ;-) Do you know what recourse we as shareholders have in that scenario, should that ever arise? Can we reject it, if we are not happy with the purchase offer? Sorry to ask so many questions, but this whole thing is rather high on my thoughts every day and keeping me up wondering about this and that.

As always appreciate your opinion and time

We not sitting duck..we a farari with the handbrakes down...okay maybe now an m3 rather.
Our biggest hurdle was the recap deal. Thats done now. The vote is arbitrary. We in a get something or get business rescue. Look at whats left snd Msrks presentation i am comfortable we have at sinificant ebitda and growth that is in addition to existing business and achievable as management can now focus all the efforts there rather than survive. With Marks no how and credibility i have locked in my buy here for a hold. This is not aspirational. This is a done deal and the hard work is done to get the deal and to ensure shareholders are informed.....
Think about a startup..and what investment will be reqyired to get here. Think about an ipo and how you would valur whats left.
I call this a target...because there is much value that can be unlocked by a listed company taking all the assets...its bad because i lose the long term play for growth and value....but great becaise i really would welcome an acquisition and exit at r4 ..

Just in case you ask...why is Mark and co soending so much time doing business 3 yr forcasts and additional work...not required right..

Its because asc management see this as an oportunity to right size but right value the share which is trading at business rescue levels....this is 2 months ...so value for shareholders but also indicating to the market if you wsnt these assets here is our price...and you now not getting the meat at a discount or a multiple of current marlet cap but at a multiple of what it is worth.....

All the dead flesh and problems are sorted..now we have a going concern...sure smaller...but the r7.6b debt poof she is gone......

[Poor Dad]

MARK had to sell the mansion and keep camps bay cottage..

We now have 2 roads...being acquired for a multiple.
Or growth as a small caps....both have alot more value than 80c...institutions have started to increase holding per register..those that dumped have exited but new coming on board. Media has been very favourable.
Vote will be approved..its only time.
And we know Mark must hit R4 to get r12...

My gues is thats the short term ceiling and why he is working hard for operational efficinecy..getting proforma out and potentially a samll special div...

If you tried to build what remins from scratch..it would tale 10 years and quadruple costs...so we know we are a target

In your opinion, do you think a sitting Duck target is a good position to be in - or bad? I mean, a duck in the hand is worth 2 dead birds, thrown with one stone? Or something like that? ;-) Do you know what recourse  we as shareholders have in that scenario, should that ever arise? Can we reject it, if we are not happy with the purchase offer? Sorry to ask so many questions, but this whole thing is rather high on my thoughts every day and keeping me up wondering about this and that. 

 

As always appreciate your opinion and time

[Investment novice]

Thank you IN for the response, ans all the hard work you,Harry and Activist did for everyone.

Those sneaky buggers. Let's hope it all works out in the end, as we got a lot of skin in this game... cheers!!!

MARK had to sell the mansion and keep camps bay cottage..

We now have 2 roads...being acquired for a multiple.
Or growth as a small caps....both have alot more value than 80c...institutions have started to increase holding per register..those that dumped have exited but new coming on board. Media has been very favourable.
Vote will be approved..its only time.
And we know Mark must hit R4 to get r12...

My gues is thats the short term ceiling and why he is working hard for operational efficinecy..getting proforma out and potentially a samll special div...

If you tried to build what remins from scratch..it would tale 10 years and quadruple costs...so we know we are a target

[Poor Dad]

Shatehokders were very concerned with the stealth with which l1b moved to assume control of the transaction which was coined a lender led transaction. All the analysts and media talked about the hostile takeover where effectively shareholders get nothing. Acrivists and Harry had done consoderable research on the company and their modus operandi. There was also a pending legal issue with one of their prior transactions very similar to this.

Based on above - the activists shareholder grouping set out to engage stakeholders- instituitions and others to get a sense of what is transpiring. Ascendis was very poor with communication. I emailed odille b. At ascendis and she would flat out refuse info and was quite blunt. Well we will push for her head on the chopping block ..

With activists gaining size.Mark engaged with us and was open about the transaction.

Activists team decided that as shareholders we could support Mark by one not adding to his headache....

But more importantly to create deal oversight and scrutiny. It was out hope that if the was sufficient deal oversight we could prevent an unfair transaction weighted in favour of l1b and shareholders losing everything. HARRY DID CONSIDERABLE LEG WORK as did activist...e met ifc and institutiins..engaged regulatory authorities.etc.


We were and are concerned of market manipulatiin as we saw the share price tank with volume and on rebound a large volume ceiling was created to prevent the rebound.The jse are reviewing this..there is also a belief that institution or other predatory investor may do this to sweat the retail investor. We still think there ate PR vultures looking to offer sharehilders a multiple of current market cap which is below value...

Not certain the benefit of the actions but certainly deal and share trafing oversight was increased.

The mist significant gain from Activists retail consolidation is representation and the sbility to now get the 75% done asap...retail 60% and AAI 30%...thats 90% already in favour of signing this deal through....

Thank you IN for the response, ans all the hard work you,Harry and Activist did for everyone.

Those sneaky buggers. Let's hope it all works out in the end, as we got a lot of skin in this game... cheers!!!

Edited by Poor Dad, 14 May 2021 - 06:51 AM.