1645 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

Hi IN,

Care you able or allowed to enlighten me/us as to Harry's comments on the activist update email the other day, when he made mention of what blantyre and H1 were "trying" to do..? .What were their original intentions and how did the activists group change the outcome?

Shatehokders were very concerned with the stealth with which l1b moved to assume control of the transaction which was coined a lender led transaction. All the analysts and media talked about the hostile takeover where effectively shareholders get nothing. Acrivists and Harry had done consoderable research on the company and their modus operandi. There was also a pending legal issue with one of their prior transactions very similar to this.

Based on above - the activists shareholder grouping set out to engage stakeholders- instituitions and others to get a sense of what is transpiring. Ascendis was very poor with communication. I emailed odille b. At ascendis and she would flat out refuse info and was quite blunt. Well we will push for her head on the chopping block ..

With activists gaining size.Mark engaged with us and was open about the transaction.

Activists team decided that as shareholders we could support Mark by one not adding to his headache....

But more importantly to create deal oversight and scrutiny. It was out hope that if the was sufficient deal oversight we could prevent an unfair transaction weighted in favour of l1b and shareholders losing everything. HARRY DID CONSIDERABLE LEG WORK as did activist...e met ifc and institutiins..engaged regulatory authorities.etc.


We were and are concerned of market manipulatiin as we saw the share price tank with volume and on rebound a large volume ceiling was created to prevent the rebound.The jse are reviewing this..there is also a belief that institution or other predatory investor may do this to sweat the retail investor. We still think there ate PR vultures looking to offer sharehilders a multiple of current market cap which is below value...

Not certain the benefit of the actions but certainly deal and share trafing oversight was increased.

The mist significant gain from Activists retail consolidation is representation and the sbility to now get the 75% done asap...retail 60% and AAI 30%...thats 90% already in favour of signing this deal through....

[Poor Dad]

Hi IN,

Care you able or allowed to enlighten me/us as to Harry's comments on the activist update email the other day, when he made mention of what blantyre and H1 were "trying" to do..? .What were their original intentions and how did the activists group change the outcome?

[Investment novice]

Blackobar..sleepware..larryk...all.

We post here our honest opinions amd thoughts .

I am grategul to all whp post and contribute.Andi has always been honesy with his analysis.

We hope people make money or prevent loss. We not financial advisors...but the posts are for the chat and dialogue. We banter with respect.

Thank you for your kind comments...and we really do hope that Asc starts to aleast by share value start to make the gains back so the longer term investors start to realise some of the lost value..

Based on Marks comments...and committing to time...this os certainly where you want to enter a share....at the bottom but with the risk reduced...i hold a signifixant holding here. Put my money by my mouth so to speak...and backing Marks turnaround...i think the van coller story is interesting with eoh...but i belive this share is on the precipus of taking off backing Mark...notbsure when the takeoff will happen. But suspect when one whale commits to 5%....lets await the sens...in the meantime...i am buying the dips...

[Investment novice]

130m plus retailers have committed to this journey and will vote yes...all things being equal and no surprised that compromised the current position.

We evaluating optiins to still enhance our position.

CEO msrk Sardi has been under immense pressure snd criticed- but yesterday we hope the market saw him for the gentleman he is and for the fight he is putting uo in several levels...r4 a share and he gets r12m....we behind Mark.


Institutional investors will start to increase the holdi g backing this and yes we think the vote yes is a formality...Activist grouping has already informed Mark of above and we want to get it out to the market ...

This ship must fly and SA investors will have some upside albeit some have lost money in this.

Mark knows growth and value gets us past r4...so expect an agressive dividend policy and special div even if 10c

[Sleepwa123]

Very cool note Blackobar. 

 

Investment novice has often been a lone prophet shouting out "Ascendis is our saviour" and looks like the Garden of Eden is around the corner for us all. (Forgive the biblical references).

 

I owe IN and Andi a few beeros when this is all over.

[Blackobar]

I'd like to thank and commend everybody in this thread whether a holder or not. Information was shared even though everyone was in the dark, different calculation metrics were shared(whether right or wrong, haha), opinions were shared etc. I appreciate this spirit as we grow in our different investment journeys. Never stop digging for information on your own for any investment you're on. Charlatans like Anthony Clark were exposed, people who are quick to pat themselves in the back when things go right and are no where to be found when things go left,people who really knew little than us, but boasted like they had some inside info.
Wishing you all Green in your portfolios.
All the best ladies and gentleman

[LarryK]

I like Mark. Good presentation.
Appreciate his comment for us to wait for the shareholder circular to calculate share value as they will be able to provide more detailed financial info.

Lots of potential with a proper restructure IMHO

[sommerso]

So we moved this morning from a share that nearly had no value, into a share with a very good potential.

 

Even though the creditors are winning more, still Ascendis share holders should vote in support of this win win deal.

 

Good that the management had interest in reaching a deal good for share holders.

 

Congrats for those that held this share through the past difficult time ... and vote "YES".

 

Guessing the shareholder vote is a matter of formality as it is either possible R3 .. or nothing. 

[Tom]

Vote "YES".

 

So we moved this morning from a share that nearly had no value, into a share with a very good potential.

 

Even though the creditors are winning more, still Ascendis share holders should vote in support of this win win deal.

 

Good that the management had interest in reaching a deal good for share holders.

 

Congrats for those that held this share through the past difficult time.

Edited by Tom, 12 May 2021 - 01:20 PM.

[Tolly12]

Is that the meeting to be held in August? 

 

In the next 2-3 weeks there will be a new SENS release with the deal details.

Within 60 days after that day there will be the shareholders vote.

 

I guess end of July there will be the vote.

[sommerso]

Nice presentation.

 

If there will be shareholders approval the 3 Rand share value is possibile (around 75 Million € as market cap, just 2,5 times potential EBITDA).

 

Is that the meeting to be held in August? 

[Tolly12]

Nice presentation.

 

If there will be shareholders approval the 3 Rand share value is possibile (around 75 Million € as market cap, just 2,5 times potential EBITDA).

[andi222]

Very good presentation and I think with the remaining businesses there is still value to grow.

We will be left with a minimum of 300 to 400 Million EBITDA per annum. Given ASC will be close to debt free we can assume a multiple of atkeast 12. So this gives us around 4 Billion of value which remains. Or close to 10 rand a share.

But let's wait and see when we have proforma financials then we reassess.

But I like the way Mark was talking about the future ASC and how he got excited about it.

Again just my opinion and nonrecommendation to trade in thisbshare. Keep strong guys.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[JR7800]

Has the presentation started already - I keep on getting error "Stream unavailable"

[sommerso]

Amen IN

They mentioned restructuring their head Office a few times in the press release. I think they will reduce their cost structure significantly
 

 

My question is... when ..... I'm just needing half of the those estimates. Hypothetical and just a vent. Not expecting answers LOL

Edited by sommerso, 12 May 2021 - 11:50 AM.

[LarryK]

Amen IN 🙌🏼

They mentioned restructuring their head Office a few times in the press release. I think they will reduce their cost structure significantly

Do a multiple..of 5x 10x or 16x....a fully functional safe comlany with manageable debt trades at 15x....but lets be cautious.use 10x...500x 10 is r5b at 490m shares is r10 a share.....okay lets say 5x....r2.5b.....thats r5 a share.....once first div paid in 2022....this year all cash will go to consultants and fees and debt.......first div...50c.....or sale of building...we may get 5c or 10c....the share will track to 15x multiple...and remember now asc can also foxus on growth andndriving business...so lets keep r500m x 15.....very soon tou see the r8 to r10 is very doable.....

[Investment novice]

Can anyone help with estimate share price valuation on ebitda R500m?

Do a multiple..of 5x 10x or 16x....a fully functional safe comlany with manageable debt trades at 15x....but lets be cautious.use 10x...500x 10 is r5b at 490m shares is r10 a share.....okay lets say 5x....r2.5b.....thats r5 a share.....once first div paid in 2022....this year all cash will go to consultants and fees and debt.......first div...50c.....or sale of building...we may get 5c or 10c....the share will track to 15x multiple...and remember now asc can also foxus on growth andndriving business...so lets keep r500m x 15.....very soon tou see the r8 to r10 is very doable.....

[LarryK]

Can anyone help with estimate share price valuation on ebitda R500m?

[Sleepwa123]

Thanks Tolly. Those numbers indicate serious value!

 

Buying additional shares now.

[sommerso]

guys, i'm disappointed too...but the alternative is ZERO...business rescue would have gotten us probably NIL...interested in what they're gonna say at 12:00...

 

most of the EBITDA will leave with those entities...estimate that R 400m will be left...no debt however...IN's R4 - R10 STILL not unrealistic....business with debt has (as in this case) a massive discount (we've discussed this a previous time), so it the law goes both ways a business with no debt should be trading at a premium...my 2c

 

 

It is true, the alternative is a big fat zero. There were inherent risks and I don't know about you, but at 85c I'm still up 50% ...  Will just have to be patient