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Ascendis Health Ltd. – JSE:ASC


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#1221 Investment novice

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 04:13 PM

I am going to try and load as much as possible..

There is a sentence that remedica is being prepared for sale.......???? Have you seen that...what does that mean.

Andi...thw scitec disposal and 2 billion impairment may have resulted in the loss per share or is that incorrect, so its an accounting loss?

If there is validity in a remedica sale we sitting with 2 European assets SA assets and debt signifinactly reduced or cleared. And a very different valuation model......and share price.

Pls xhecknthe sens and the statements have i mis interpreted. Will wait for comments....and put in a buy for end of day
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#1222 andi222

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 03:18 PM

Yeah overall very positive, there will be some uptrend the over the next few days. Also after next week Tuesday we will have a better picture. Hopefully we will have a clean audit opinion. 

 

Technically we need to break 82 and 97 cents for much bigger gains. If these two marks are broken there will be a huge spike in the share price. 


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#1223 Investment novice

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 03:09 PM

Strange that there are almost no deals going
through, in terms of share activity.


Patience chaps.....deals will start to come in. Expect the funds which have a high risk element can now bite as well due to the bill of health.many sitting on the fence will start to bite as well....until we get to tipping point...
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#1224 Investment novice

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 03:06 PM

Expect share to climb over the next few days...and when the financials come out end of the month. Woth the sens we should start seeing some positive uptrend. The loss per share may be accounting in nature ...not sure if that relates to the value destroyed with scitec etc. True finance costs will eat into the margins. All in all the company can now publish financials, clean set of audited financials and looks in a much better state than it did last year. Even if all the ebitda goes to interest payments. ..we are sitting on a fantastic set of assets....which are increasing in value. Remedicas worth most certai ly would now be easily at 400m dollars, easily justifiable if not more. I am keen to see the European asset financials as this may have outpaced sa
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#1225 AnbanM

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 03:06 PM

Strange that there are almost no deals going through, in terms of share activity.


yeah...i would have expected this to have blown up by now....going to hold long on my end
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#1226 Leadingedge

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 03:04 PM

Strange that there are almost no deals going through, in terms of share activity.


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#1227 David-89

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 02:38 PM

I hear you guys, and I'm also of the opinion that the increase in EBITDA is fantastic, but the finance cost is killing all of that, and causing a loss ultimately...
is that maybe the reason that the price isn't really reacting?

how do you value something like this? EBITDA 1149 x 5 multiple (as far as I know this is very conservative...?) 5,745 - 4500 (debt) = 1,245 / 489m shares in issue = R 2.54...?


That’s a good starting point for a high level valuation. I also use a more conservative multiple of between 5 and 6 as studies have shown a lower multiple these days is far more appropriate.

Agreed the finance costs are destroying value but hopefully they can pay off a significant chunk of debt with the higher earnings.
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#1228 Dell

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 02:34 PM

I hear you guys, and I'm also of the opinion that the increase in EBITDA is fantastic, but the finance cost is killing all of that, and causing a loss ultimately...

is that maybe the reason that the price isn't really reacting?

 

how do you value something like this?  EBITDA 1149 x 5 multiple (as far as I know this is very conservative...?) 5,745 - 4500 (debt) = 1,245 / 489m shares in issue = R 2.54...?


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#1229 Investment novice

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 02:25 PM

I am pleased with top line and ebitda as demonstrates the quality of the assets, the rest of report is accounting ....
Remember asc had a difficult corona period and some of those sales will also carry into h1 2020,many li es pumping but big lines in surgocals and flue meds low. I think this sets the company up as a good investment long term especially with direction on strategy.. r2 to be breached ,...with these margins Andi...you should be looking at r4
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#1230 andi222

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 02:18 PM

Yes ya in the Corona times this is an exceptional performance:

 

Normalised EBITDAPM of between R1 149 million and R1 208 million, representing:
• an improvement of between 313% and 333% when compared to the reported Normalised EBITDAPM of R279
million for the Prior Corresponding Period; and
• an improvement of between 53% and 61% when compared to the restated Normalised EBITDAPM of R749
million for the Prior Corresponding Period.


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#1231 Leadingedge

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 02:08 PM

Straight into a volatility auction! Lets hope she flies from here on...I will reserve comments on the trading statement, but +20% seems like extremely good news?


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#1232 AnbanM

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 02:07 PM

Trading statement published....what the views ??...looks very promising to me ....
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#1233 Investment novice

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 02:00 PM

Sens out at 14h00
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#1234 Milo

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 11:52 AM

The pharmaceutical exports for Cyprus and Remedica were good and the last voluntary update relating to the impact of covid-19 was a positive one. I am adding a little bit more in case trading update is very good.

 

 


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#1235 Investment novice

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 10:20 AM

Eish this was yesterday's.........would love to get a sense not a sens...of the impact of the disposal on the fy 2020 and how this improves the reporting as well as the value in the company....
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#1236 David-89

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 09:55 AM

Latest SENS is out.

https://ascendisheal...ing-final-2.pdf
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#1237 Investment novice

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Posted 22 September 2020 - 09:53 AM

Does it seem like management has a plan to pump the price and optimise the reporting...disposals of laggards certainly help... we now in the final legs...
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#1238 DeltaHedge

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Posted 21 September 2020 - 09:34 PM

We need some gains for a change
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#1239 SB45

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Posted 21 September 2020 - 09:19 PM

We should be receiving an Update this week. Also will be interesting to hear about future plans regarding Remedica and also if they have found a new CFO. 

Just when I think, we are getting an upward momentum, it deeps. Really strange behaviour on this share. Looking forward to the SENS though


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#1240 Investment novice

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Posted 21 September 2020 - 05:13 PM

Any comments kn disposal and the debt...
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