258 replies to this topic

[Midas1]

Do know if im long or short always duck out bit early as my mind goes bank while you can...

[Midas1]

Thanks soutie..agree averaging out prices is admitting you didn't get it right..I have hold position overnight average 78.69 now am sweating a bit as heard msci emerging markets quarterly comes out tonight I think and if impala makes it on I could be in trouble with my short..with costs I have very good deal with iress...less than 2.5 percent to buy or sell so doesn't affect costs re average price as long as I buy more than their standard fee of 120 rand...but thanks..I'm all ears about tips or advise....

[Motivated]

Thanks snippit stops on place and stick them...shorted more at 78.81...a rand down and I'll buy them and get out...I don't mess around too much with my hard earned

I should learn from this   .....Don't mess with hard earned...

[soutie]

Hi  Midas.

Please view this a helpful intended post.

Initially shorting at 78.08 yip all well & good....Then why add at 78.81...? In newbie world it makes your loss not look so bad yet it has doubled your trading costs. Secondly it's hardly a movement in price to warrant taking another bite unless you have taken a sized position you're uncomfortable with (that's another post altogether) Mentioned all over trading tips manuals etc..is keep your costs down as it's 1 of the mechanisms completely under your control.

If when you've entered the trade it immediately moves away from you negatively your entry price was wrong so re-calibrate based on the new information you now have.

I agree shorting requires a different set of balls & I'm sure the above looks like common sense now... but in the moment....

Best of luck.

[Midas1]

Thanks snippit stops on place and stick them...shorted more at 78.81...a rand down and I'll buy them and get out...I don't mess around too much with my hard earned

[Snippit]

Most CFD platforms carry warnings to advise that more than 80% of traders will lose. Could be quick or take a little longer. 

If we assume that the winners are the experienced and professional people then it follows that the inexperienced will make up the bulk of the losers. Say about 99.9%. 

Hey, don't let me put you off. Its as easy as throwing a dart for a bulls eye at 50 paces.  

[Midas1]

Just shorted imp from 78.08....flipping hope it dies its dip now...then going long if goes low enough..
Did mad spike this morning...I think know why but need confirmation

[Midas1]

I'm putting it out there jubilee volumes well up I'm in from while ago...this one about start popping imo....read sens..

[new john]

Those who CFD.

Have a gander at RCL and make your own mind up.

Every day is an interesting one.

[Midas1]

Liking jubilee as equity buy...think by end year this should be positive.....have quite lot allready

[Midas1]

Jubilee but out good production update

[Midas1]

Imp my favourite cfd share at moment...fluctuating 73 to 78 nearlly daily..think it will settle after results 5 sep but for now even with plat down.moving a lot..bought 74 to go long again Friday afternoon...so hoping nothing dire happens over weekend...have a good one all.....been having a good run so expecting a sting soon....actually ready for it 😑

[Midas1]

Officially joined the other side and became shorter today 😅,,,bought imp went long then shorted hee hee victory....was sweating it and watched my screen until it pinged...think with so many red days better short as well..

[Polly]

Anyone not fake can confirm that you are your own worst enemy.

How about giving the reference to the source. Otherwise plagiarism must be added to the long list.

7. not being part of any one group ...gold bugs, hedge fund wannabees , failed investors turned philosophers, yes group threads/forums, if ,  but ,hope and Waiters groups,  groups that mislead , change wave counts to suit their opinions , groups that insult, name call and character assassinate any alternative views,  after the event groups showing winning trades etc...

[Snippit]

Then we have expectations vs reality...Social media , forums etc is like posting illusions of how things should be. What you do in private will get the recognition public. Its about time and effort. Many people underestimate the amount of time and effort that it takes to be a good investor/trader. Social media and forums  are a double edged sword.  One group will make success  or being profitable look easy while others will really dsiplay what it takes. Do yourself a big favour and follow the right people for a real look.

Ill quote my previous advise here from another thread :

 

"Don't ever get discouraged by other peoples success, no one is showing their failures online unless they posting their actual trades..!!!! "

 

And then every investor/ trader  will eventually go through some wining streak . Sometimes it will feel as if whatever we touch turns to gold. For the experienced  investor/trader , they will understand where this phrase comes from  and goes , so they wont be phased much.  However for the newbies , they will enter what i call the overconfidence effect. They think they are the chosen ones..There system of picking stocks , their timing , their strategy and asset allocation model is far superior.  They will claim they have got the holy grail. 

These hot streaks as i call is usually apparent when they are trading on the right side of the trend ( bull in a rising bull market)...unlike catching tops and bottoms ....wont last forever. The moment the market changes direction, their  total inexperience in  bear markets  blows thier accounts and turns them away from trading/investing all together.  The recent bias has been a full blown  bull market going on and on. The newbies having entered into this system with a view that what has worked recently has always worked throughout history  and will continue to do well in the future. However experience is important . Events that may not have occurred in our lifetime may suddenly appear again. So it is very important to learn from history. 

Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it! Note thier have been 3 important stock market crashes from 1984 to 2008 with a fully blown bear market around 2006. very few here would have experienced this as im talking to newbies here.

 

That should be about it..I hope sharing some of my knowledge and own experiences in the investment/trading game helps you become better traders/investors

 

We are our own worst enemy. So maybe the important questions in investing is not about what is the valuation ? What is net asset value? is the trend bearish or bullish? Whats the target after the breakout? What wave are we on following EW?  BUT how well do you really understand  yourself? How well can you control your emotions? 

 

In my mind at all times....

1. no falling in love with a story , narrative, investment theme ....

2. having a conviction and strong opinions but holding them as a weak hand ...

3.not being a perma anything...

4. not trusting a single factor or having a bias towards one data...

5. being mindful of the way research analysis frame their ideas and mislead us...

6. making sure i dont have a blind sport.... best done by reading material of those who you disagree with which makesit very healthy in decision making.

7. not being part of any one group ...gold bugs, hedge fund wannabees , failed investors turned philosophers, yes group threads/forums, if ,  but ,hope and Waiters groups,  groups that mislead , change wave counts to suit their opinions , groups that insult, name call and character assassinate any alternative views,  after the event groups showing winning trades etc...

 

 

Finally ill repeat again.....You are your worst enemy.Your job as an investor/trader is not to be right, but to make money and be profitable!!!!!!!

 

 

Anyone not fake can confirm that you are your own worst enemy.

How about giving the reference to the source. Otherwise plagiarism must be added to the long list.

[Tetonka]

Then we have expectations vs reality...Social media , forums etc is like posting illusions of how things should be. What you do in private will get the recognition public. Its about time and effort. Many people underestimate the amount of time and effort that it takes to be a good investor/trader. Social media and forums  are a double edged sword.  One group will make success  or being profitable look easy while others will really dsiplay what it takes. Do yourself a big favour and .......

 

Thanks Polly!

[Polly]

Not posting any cfd charts this weekend but would like to focus on the mental state of investing/trading .

For some maybe not as fun as analyzing the charts but in my opinion far more important.Some here may have heard that as humans we are not wired to be good investors. As a matter of fact , due to being such emotional creatures being rules by fear , panic and greed....The Markets extreme volatility is our own behavior of uncertainty , acting on emotions , gambling and being totally irrational.

 

In investing you are your own worst enemy. IMO unprofitable investors are easily spotted by a number or traits which i will discuss / explain later. 

 

Why is what im doing here / showing usefull? Well one of the ways to become profitable is to find a very few successful ones and learn from them.

 

Lets start: 

 

One of the most important traits of a successful  investor/ trader  who is consistently profitable is that he possesses the ability to think in the opposite extremities. Basically a bipolar analysis . Why is this important?

 

1.F Scott Fitzgerald once said " The test of a first rate intelligence is the ability to hold 2 opposite ideas in the mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function"

2. Another strong quote in the field on investing that is used often by very consistent investors is "  Strong Opinions , weakly held"

 

So many investors have downfalls because they  believe the narrative  and fall in love with their analysis. When newbies speculate in assets like the shares  or cryptocurrencies  you will rarely see " the ability to hold two opposed ideas" from such investors. same could be said of those investors chasing super high growth shares or investing in the next Silcon valley startup.

 

They are part of a cult   . True believers who will never ever bother analyzing the other side of the bet.

Another undesired trait in the field of investing is the so called " Illusion of validity" Basically everywhere you look , you only see what want to see. . No matter what is going on , they spin a positive bullish view. And of cos yes , its business for them . Positive news attract more attention and attention in social media = income ( advertising etc. This is their job ( seeking alpha comes to mind)

 

However as a newbie investor , you have to have an open mind . You should not fall into a perma bull nor perma bear state.

During every expansionary period there are plenty of reasons to worry. This is why they say markets climb on a wall of worry. Worrying is fine but entering a state of perma siding , the illusion of validity , or in plain simple english ...only seeing negativity in a bull market or vise versa , this could be very hazardous to your state of mind. For the newbies it could even mean NEVER reach profitability. 

Moving along , another sign of an inexperienced investors or newbie is when you see them  talking up their book. They fall in love with this so called fast growing company they own or precious metal or digital currency and they believe it has better technology or growth than any of the others. This refers to the term " Strong Opinions weakly held" 

 

D0 not fall in love with any of your investments , precious metals or crptos.  These investments will never love you back. Only and only believe in the story  and narrative for as long as the price moves in the right direction.  But when the bull market ends , or liquidation occurs , and when judgement day arrives as it has during all the previous cycles , the market darlings always disappoint you the most!!!!!

 

Those who fall in love with their investment book and forget about that RISK  MANAGEMENT  is more important than LOVE , they will be the most heart broken.

 

Another factor or mindset hazardous to your success and profitability is anchoring or single factor decision making.  In plain English  one piece of information that you have a bias towards and you let it effect your total decision making.....instead of taking onboard everything in front of you.

 

The their is the bias blind spot. This happens with more advanced investors.  Simple example here.. You may investors here who have been correctly bullish during the bull market. They will then taunt the perma bears , laugh at them , poke fun at their research  and totally ignore what the bears have to say. That works until it doesnt and when judgement day arrives for the bull market  , bears will have the last laugh. Basically these bears who are quite smart have been consistently wrong during the bull market , the person ( bull)who suffers from bias blind spot will eventually fail to heed the important message from the bear research or advise. hence when investing keep an open mind at all times.

 

In group bias is another form of not having the ability to entertain both sides of the coin, bipolar thinking and being open minded. eg the group of friends you keep or a particular forum you post in or the people you follow on twitter may all follow and talk the same share , indexes crypto etc

My advise is to follow as many people who you disagree with , that you also follow who you agree with.Make your social media or forum feed balanced . You dont need so called " YES MEN" around you giving you confirmation bias all the time.

Let someone experienced  challenge your book and narratives you hold , the investment themes and ideas that think you will florish forever ( probably wont). So its very healthy to see the other side fo the argument.

 

Your job as an investor/trader is not to be right but to be PROFITABLE. Those people who you disagree with will help you apply risk management juts in case they are right and you are wrong. After all the primary job of an investor or trader is NEVER to lose money . Just ask Mr Buffet

 

Then you have the curse of knowledge or the so super IQ. You have people who think they are so smart they think they can beat the market and outsmart it . Always remember the old saying on wall street " Markets are never wrong , people often are". The curse of knowledge is apparent with those who come from other high level professions and have been tasked with becoming  profitable in the game of investing/trading where markets and things are not rational and are based on emotions of fear and greed!!! Dentists , surgeons , doctors , mathematicians , lawyers , inventors and your everyday genius tend to have this curse go against then very very frequently. Furthermore we have seen some of the smartest hedge fund managers blow up their accounts betting against recessions , betting against countries like china or japan , betting against weather etc..Majority of them fail at investing.

 

 

to be continue next week end 

 

Then we have expectations vs reality...Social media , forums etc is like posting illusions of how things should be. What you do in private will get the recognition public. Its about time and effort. Many people underestimate the amount of time and effort that it takes to be a good investor/trader. Social media and forums  are a double edged sword.  One group will make success  or being profitable look easy while others will really dsiplay what it takes. Do yourself a big favour and follow the right people for a real look.

Ill quote my previous advise here from another thread :

 

"Don't ever get discouraged by other peoples success, no one is showing their failures online unless they posting their actual trades..!!!! "

 

And then every investor/ trader  will eventually go through some wining streak . Sometimes it will feel as if whatever we touch turns to gold. For the experienced  investor/trader , they will understand where this phrase comes from  and goes , so they wont be phased much.  However for the newbies , they will enter what i call the overconfidence effect. They think they are the chosen ones..There system of picking stocks , their timing , their strategy and asset allocation model is far superior.  They will claim they have got the holy grail. 

These hot streaks as i call is usually apparent when they are trading on the right side of the trend ( bull in a rising bull market)...unlike catching tops and bottoms ....wont last forever. The moment the market changes direction, their  total inexperience in  bear markets  blows thier accounts and turns them away from trading/investing all together.  The recent bias has been a full blown  bull market going on and on. The newbies having entered into this system with a view that what has worked recently has always worked throughout history  and will continue to do well in the future. However experience is important . Events that may not have occurred in our lifetime may suddenly appear again. So it is very important to learn from history. 

Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it! Note thier have been 3 important stock market crashes from 1984 to 2008 with a fully blown bear market around 2006. very few here would have experienced this as im talking to newbies here.

 

That should be about it..I hope sharing some of my knowledge and own experiences in the investment/trading game helps you become better traders/investors

 

We are our own worst enemy. So maybe the important questions in investing is not about what is the valuation ? What is net asset value? is the trend bearish or bullish? Whats the target after the breakout? What wave are we on following EW?  BUT how well do you really understand  yourself? How well can you control your emotions? 

 

In my mind at all times....

1. no falling in love with a story , narrative, investment theme ....

2. having a conviction and strong opinions but holding them as a weak hand ...

3.not being a perma anything...

4. not trusting a single factor or having a bias towards one data...

5. being mindful of the way research analysis frame their ideas and mislead us...

6. making sure i dont have a blind sport.... best done by reading material of those who you disagree with which makesit very healthy in decision making.

7. not being part of any one group ...gold bugs, hedge fund wannabees , failed investors turned philosophers, yes group threads/forums, if ,  but ,hope and Waiters groups,  groups that mislead , change wave counts to suit their opinions , groups that insult, name call and character assassinate any alternative views,  after the event groups showing winning trades etc...

 

 

Finally ill repeat again.....You are your worst enemy.Your job as an investor/trader is not to be right, but to make money and be profitable!!!!!!!

[Polly]

Not posting any cfd charts this weekend but would like to focus on the mental state of investing/trading .

For some maybe not as fun as analyzing the charts but in my opinion far more important.Some here may have heard that as humans we are not wired to be good investors. As a matter of fact , due to being such emotional creatures being rules by fear , panic and greed....The Markets extreme volatility is our own behavior of uncertainty , acting on emotions , gambling and being totally irrational.

 

In investing you are your own worst enemy. IMO unprofitable investors are easily spotted by a number or traits which i will discuss / explain later. 

 

Why is what im doing here / showing usefull? Well one of the ways to become profitable is to find a very few successful ones and learn from them.

 

Lets start: 

 

One of the most important traits of a successful  investor/ trader  who is consistently profitable is that he possesses the ability to think in the opposite extremities. Basically a bipolar analysis . Why is this important?

 

1.F Scott Fitzgerald once said " The test of a first rate intelligence is the ability to hold 2 opposite ideas in the mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function"

2. Another strong quote in the field on investing that is used often by very consistent investors is "  Strong Opinions , weakly held"

 

So many investors have downfalls because they  believe the narrative  and fall in love with their analysis. When newbies speculate in assets like the shares  or cryptocurrencies  you will rarely see " the ability to hold two opposed ideas" from such investors. same could be said of those investors chasing super high growth shares or investing in the next Silcon valley startup.

 

They are part of a cult   . True believers who will never ever bother analyzing the other side of the bet.

Another undesired trait in the field of investing is the so called " Illusion of validity" Basically everywhere you look , you only see what want to see. . No matter what is going on , they spin a positive bullish view. And of cos yes , its business for them . Positive news attract more attention and attention in social media = income ( advertising etc. This is their job ( seeking alpha comes to mind)

 

However as a newbie investor , you have to have an open mind . You should not fall into a perma bull nor perma bear state.

During every expansionary period there are plenty of reasons to worry. This is why they say markets climb on a wall of worry. Worrying is fine but entering a state of perma siding , the illusion of validity , or in plain simple english ...only seeing negativity in a bull market or vise versa , this could be very hazardous to your state of mind. For the newbies it could even mean NEVER reach profitability. 

Moving along , another sign of an inexperienced investors or newbie is when you see them  talking up their book. They fall in love with this so called fast growing company they own or precious metal or digital currency and they believe it has better technology or growth than any of the others. This refers to the term " Strong Opinions weakly held" 

 

D0 not fall in love with any of your investments , precious metals or crptos.  These investments will never love you back. Only and only believe in the story  and narrative for as long as the price moves in the right direction.  But when the bull market ends , or liquidation occurs , and when judgement day arrives as it has during all the previous cycles , the market darlings always disappoint you the most!!!!!

 

Those who fall in love with their investment book and forget about that RISK  MANAGEMENT  is more important than LOVE , they will be the most heart broken.

 

Another factor or mindset hazardous to your success and profitability is anchoring or single factor decision making.  In plain English  one piece of information that you have a bias towards and you let it effect your total decision making.....instead of taking onboard everything in front of you.

 

The their is the bias blind spot. This happens with more advanced investors.  Simple example here.. You may investors here who have been correctly bullish during the bull market. They will then taunt the perma bears , laugh at them , poke fun at their research  and totally ignore what the bears have to say. That works until it doesnt and when judgement day arrives for the bull market  , bears will have the last laugh. Basically these bears who are quite smart have been consistently wrong during the bull market , the person ( bull)who suffers from bias blind spot will eventually fail to heed the important message from the bear research or advise. hence when investing keep an open mind at all times.

 

In group bias is another form of not having the ability to entertain both sides of the coin, bipolar thinking and being open minded. eg the group of friends you keep or a particular forum you post in or the people you follow on twitter may all follow and talk the same share , indexes crypto etc

My advise is to follow as many people who you disagree with , that you also follow who you agree with.Make your social media or forum feed balanced . You dont need so called " YES MEN" around you giving you confirmation bias all the time.

Let someone experienced  challenge your book and narratives you hold , the investment themes and ideas that think you will florish forever ( probably wont). So its very healthy to see the other side fo the argument.

 

Your job as an investor/trader is not to be right but to be PROFITABLE. Those people who you disagree with will help you apply risk management juts in case they are right and you are wrong. After all the primary job of an investor or trader is NEVER to lose money . Just ask Mr Buffet

 

Then you have the curse of knowledge or the so super IQ. You have people who think they are so smart they think they can beat the market and outsmart it . Always remember the old saying on wall street " Markets are never wrong , people often are". The curse of knowledge is apparent with those who come from other high level professions and have been tasked with becoming  profitable in the game of investing/trading where markets and things are not rational and are based on emotions of fear and greed!!! Dentists , surgeons , doctors , mathematicians , lawyers , inventors and your everyday genius tend to have this curse go against then very very frequently. Furthermore we have seen some of the smartest hedge fund managers blow up their accounts betting against recessions , betting against countries like china or japan , betting against weather etc..Majority of them fail at investing.

 

 

to be continue next week end 

[Midas1]

Imp caught me by surprise this afternoon dipped in again on cfds 72.90 higher than my ideal but thought id miss the boat and dropped 1.8 percent....oh well Monday another day..anyway im holding till trading statement investec reckons minimum 85 a share...lets see but wouldn't be paying off bonds unless cash rich

[Midas1]

Imp behaving well for me so far..going try buy again later or tommorrow...3rd go