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#225622 Small Caps: Which is the Next Ten Bagger?

Posted by keith on 09 December 2013 - 09:02 AM

Hi everyone,
 
I have started this thread for a number of reasons: Firstly, I am just plain curious with regards to others opinions and their views on the market. Secondly, this is effectively crowdsourcing some research ideas. Thirdly, as we end the year and go into the next one, I think a fresh look at new potential investments is quite topical. And, finally, this should make an interesting (expanding) read during the traditionally quite newsflow period of the Festive Season, which really starts next week...
 
The idea is that somewhere on the JSE is the next Ten Bagger (+1000% return) stock. Which one is it? Ten Baggers tend to be small caps growing quickly from small bases, hence this is really a small cap thread. Also Ten Baggers are almost always made over a couple of years, so this will be fundamental analysis thread.
 
Let me add some structure to this thread so that replies and conversation can flow smoothly. Please write your investment idea for the single most promising small cap on the JSE in the following format:
 
- Stock name:
- Stock code:
- Business model:
- Downside Risks:
- Investment case:
- Valuation:
 
So, what small cap do you think will be the next Ten Bagger?
 
Kind regards,
Keith McLachlan
 
 
 

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#294372 Steinhoff

Posted by DayTraderDad on 22 December 2020 - 03:23 PM

How is brexit deal going to assist with litigation and all the other problems facing snh?

You got to separate Brexit , litigation and debt. Each one of those will influence the share price differently. Brexit deal will stabilize trading in Europe therefore no risk to SNH trading losses. Litigation once sorted will make the share price to rise considerably. Then once the debt is under control final restructuring in place will then bring the share to it future value of well above the R10.


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#254223 AFDAWN

Posted by ajax on 23 March 2015 - 09:01 AM

Point taken re certain Venture Capital Companies' challenges in a listed environment; but lets stick to the reality and facts, Afdawn is at this stage obliged to function within the JSE and other regulatory frameworks. Afdawn' stated vision is to be an investment holding company, or is it? The 'bump and dump' philosophy is a new Grindstone making.

 

On the 17th April 2012 (before selling out to Afdawn) Keet van Zyl proclaimed in a press interview; "Knife Capital is flexible about raising funds. We may look at raising a smaller (ouch)  tranche of funding - maybe R100m-R150m - which will allow us to close off a fund and build a track record before testing the investment market again. The 'entry ticket' will cost between R20m and R30m, which means that pension funds and institutions, as well as 'super angel' funders offshore, will be the initial targets.".....   

 

It must be noted that they were not successful in the above i.e. raising any funding and Afdawn was a last port in a storm for them, according to KvZ without the envisaged track record.

 

Regarding the past successes claimed as achieved by the KC team as managers of the HBD fund; Tim Harned of AGC was the sole financial adviser for HBD re the Fundamo HBD transaction which Knife Capital often claimed as a KC success (see AGC web site). Tim is often a speaker at the Grindstone exit-centric workshops... 

 

Even the iKubu transaction was according to Franz Struwig of their own making (interview on KykNet), it may be that KC has done some lesser paperwork for an undisclosed fee on this deal - as there is no transparency we may only guess.

 

No kudos there! So without capabilities in their field of expertise what did Afdawn buy? 

 

April 2014 Knife Capital sold a two year old seemingly insolvent company of which the balance sheet was bumped up with intangible assets of more than R10 million (to make the deal fly) to Afdawn for R10 million plus (please read the AD interim report to verify - 28th November 2014). So what can they lose? Who has done the independent DD on KC? My guess a related party, where are they now?   

 

Regarding open and transparent communication; at the AGM the CEO said that they subscribe to the King 111 Report, inter alia the Board is responsible for Governing Stakeholder Relationships;

 

o    Transparent and effective communication with stakeholders is essential for building and maintaining their trust and confidence.

o    Complete, timely, relevant, accurate, honest and accessible information should be provided by the company to its stakeholders. 

o    Communication with stakeholders should be in clear and understandable language. (please note the interim report was presented in very complicated and peculiar English and a lot of double talk) 

o    The board should adopt communication guidelines that support a responsible communication programme.

 

These are facts and not emotion or blind believe, there are only two Afdawn Board members that are not in one way or another compromised by the KC transaction.   

 

But let us wait things will pan out over time, the JSE may even have a say in the matter. Some people may think that the Afdawn Board is misleading the investor market by manipulating communications to suit the situation.  

 

 

 

 

 


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#250498 ALSI Trades

Posted by RusQ on 27 November 2014 - 08:00 PM

cowboy rusq, for a man that 'knows nothing' (but wants to be in the top 2%) your opinion must count little...from the nature of your posts you don't strike me as man that gives opinions; but rather as one that takes others'...but thanks for your attempts at intelligent commentary anyways.

err, uhmm. HAU!

LOL - you probably correct in that my opinion is worthless (main reason why it is not for sale).

one of the first things i taught my kids, was to THINK for themselves. they do now, although they may also fail your requirement for intelligent commentary.

so be it...


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#245026 ALSI Trades

Posted by Roundtree on 21 August 2014 - 01:52 PM

Just for interest sake Roundtree, if you are willing to buy at that level, why do you not Short the hell out of her now.

 

 

you beat me to it, was about to ask the same question!

I'm glad you asked. It's all about odds, actually.

 

There are two levels I'm looking at. Two days ago professionals were buying when everybody was selling. They have to sell those longs eventually. My chart says they've been buying since 46545 and that's where they ultimately have to close. Anything can happen after that. 

 

Yesterday when the market was going up after the dip, they were opening short positions, when the dumb money was buying. Jakes and other smart traders took a long bet because the odds were in their favour and they made tons of money when everyone thought the sky was falling. Those short positions that the professionals opened have to be covered eventually. Remember, professionals never close at a loss. 

 

Now as a retail trader I have no way of telling which way this thing will move; there's not a single trading indicator in the world that can tell me which way this thing will move. Not a moving average, RSI or MFI. Anyone who says they know is lying to you. Not even the professionals know. 

 

We're currently hovering somewhere in between these two levels I mentioned earlier. Lets say I open a short right now. These crooks might decide to cover their shorts first (move south) in which case I'd make tons of money, or they might decide to close their long positions above, in which case I'd lose tons of money. Now that's gambling. The odds are 50/50. Not good at all.

 

So what should I do? WAIT. Wait until at least I think the professionals have covered their shorts and eliminated some of the risk. It's only then that I can say with a reasonable amount of certainty that the odds are in my favour. Right now, we're are sitting at 50/50. You don't have to be a professional gambler to know that those aren't good odds, brother. 

 

Of course this is based on the premise that we are trading a rigged market and professionals never close at a loss

 

Feel free to punch holes; I'm willing to learn from other traders. Unfortunately, I'm clueless when it comes to indicators - I only trade naked charts with horizontal lines.

 

Happy trading.


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#242517 ALSI Trades

Posted by Casenova on 01 August 2014 - 10:08 AM

You know those documentaries about how, a long time ago, the dinosaurs were wiped out by a massive comet that struck the earth... They will tell you that everything was either dead or dying by the time the rock struck. They will also go on to conclude that, according to historical data, the earth is due for another comet strike that would most certainly wipe out every living organism on earth, and that it is not a question of "if" but rather of "when". It never matters how much they emphasize it, it feels unlikely to ever happen.

 

This bloody "market correction" feels like that comet that is "supposedly" on it's way as i am typing this. It feels as if it is never gonna happen.

 

So i would just like to take this opportunity to say Welcome Comet, i hope you had a pleasant trip.

 

C


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#234053 ALSI Trades

Posted by JBlack on 10 April 2014 - 09:35 PM

70 posts a day. 5 about trading. Rest about b$tching and moaning. *** this. I am done with this forum.
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#233260 Visual International

Posted by Saints on 02 April 2014 - 01:22 PM

Thanks for the heads-up Mokhachane and SB45 on further new listings in the pipeline. PSG-Konsult and now Sygnia are on my radar.

 

I will start a new thread entitled 'New Listings' so that we can get some more input as we may miss those guys and gals who do not read and contribute to the Visual Thread.

 

Thanks for the reccie out to the Visual site Goliath, I look forward to see how Friday goes 


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#232662 ALSI Trades

Posted by Argento on 26 March 2014 - 02:06 PM

Sons of ALSI,

 

I am Argento! And I see a whole army of my tradingmen, here in defiance of trifurcation. You’ve come to trade as free men… and free men you are. What will you do without money in your account? Will you trade?

Trader:Trade? Against the FED? No! We will short. And we will live.

Aye, go long and you may die. Short, and you’ll live… at least a while. And sitting in front of your screen, a month from now, would you be willin’ to trade ALL the days, from this day to that, for one chance, just one chance, to come back here and tell the market makers that they may take our money, but they’ll never take… OUR FREEDOM!

 

:)


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#224499 ALSI Trades

Posted by OceanWalz on 26 November 2013 - 03:13 PM

sorry , only comment I have: 

big.jpeg


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#223874 ALSI Trades

Posted by Sunesis on 20 November 2013 - 09:52 PM

Now the Bulls who are weak will close.

All the bears will jump in.

 

Bulls like us will jump in at the low.

 

Perfect time to buy, when everybody is jumping out.

Tomorrow will be great.

 We might hit the 39800 mark.

 

That's were the man will be separated from the boys


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#256771 CFD Trades - Trending Shares

Posted by Pilotpilot on 02 June 2015 - 11:31 AM

Hi Pilot,

 

Great thread, been following it since you started it.

 

I was wondering how you determine in which way the trend is heading? Is it through technical analysis?

 

Hi pilot thanks for the great advise. I'm sure most of us would like to know this but you keep talking about you triggers and indicators. Would you mind giving your break down of your ticks/rules that a trade needs to make for you to consider it?<br /><br />Thank in advance. 😄

 

Morning Gents

 

Just to give you bit of background.

 

I have been investing since 1994 and was fascinated with the Stock Exchange (and I still am). I have a strong maths background and wanted to figure out why and when to buy shares. Warren Buffet , had me hooked on value investing by 2005, but I was a big fan of technical analysis. So since 2006 I backed only value shares and used technical analysis to determine good entry points. I started using SSF in 2008 to increase my exposure, but at the end of 2008 and beginning of 2009 I lost everything. I was holding shares like BRN, OML, SHF and TKG. In those days it was the best value I could find on the market, and had I held them till today, I would have done well. But if there is panic and fear in the market, you can hold the best of shares, they will get smash. And when you think its the bottom.... they get smashed some more. 19 and 20 February 2009 was the end for me when OML dropped 7,3% and 5,8% in succession, after dropping from my R8-00 entry to R7-00 before the 19th. Not happy times, to say the least.

 

Now on to the better news. The lessons I learned from this experience, has changed my view on the way the market is moving. Fundamentals wasn't moving it, in the short term anyway. So my interest changed to reading up everything on market cycles and trends, which shares do best in which part of the cycle. It is all good to know this, but when is the start and when is the beginning and when do the certain sector start moving. It was very vague. And that took me right back to my Technical analysis. Three years ago I was full time into technical analysis and tried about 100 different technical indicators. Using them in different ways, and added % chance of success on each of them. Most of them don't work on their own effectively, but I had about 15 that worked the best.

 

The last year my focus swung to what happens right before an uptrend or downtrend and I found that certain (modified) indicators do the same thing nearly every time a new trend starts (about 85% success). In March this year I ran preliminary data on Jan, Feb and March of 2015 and came to the astonishing conclusion, of doing 67%, 80% and 55% in each of those months (with gearing of course). Around 10-20% without gearing.

 

My next step was to prove it with real trading scenarios and thus the thread, I started here on sharechat. I am in the process of leaving my current job, and to pursue trading shares full time. 

 

If someone can come up with a descent 8 digit amount for my model, I would sell it. :D  But I don't want to jeopardise the sale of my model by giving all the information that I have. 

 

 

I do use RSI indicators, Divergence indicators (I developed myself), STS indicators (modified), MFI indicator (modified), sma's and wma's. Most of these indicators values have been changed to give smoother and more accurate trigger points. Some of the short term Indicators need to do the same thing at the same time, to validate a trend changes, but then I need to see a trend break on the RSI indicators as well. (Not on the graph). I would sometimes say a trend has broken, but it has broken on the RSI and not on the graph. 

 

Lastly, I would go to the graph, and especially with big formation breaks, it confirms the new trend and the break. Then a new trend has started (most of the time)

 

I know I'm not giving you a lot of information, but hope this will help. 

 

In the meantime, I will be posting on here, to share my view. Thanks to everyone for all the interest! ;)

 

Happy Trading

 

 

Pilot


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